Bitget And Polymarket Say Prediction Markets Shed “Casino” Label, Reach $25.7 Billion Monthly Volume

Prediction markets are shedding the “casino” label and positioning themselves as a regular way to track the news, according to a joint report from Bitget and Polymarket.

“Prediction markets are ditching the 'casino' label to become a regular part of how people track the news A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics”

@coindesk

The report says prediction markets are evolving into a “$240 billion industry” driven by retail users who trade more frequently across topics “from crypto to sports to politics.”

@coindesk

It frames the shift as a move away from “occasional, event-driven bets” toward “continuous platforms built around frequent, smaller trades by retail users.”

CoinDesk reports that Polymarket’s monthly trading volume “reached $25.7 billion in March,” while activity is measured through “1.29 million wallets in the first quarter.”

The same reporting says “More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter,” emphasizing that growth is “being driven by frequency rather than trade size.”

CoinMarketCap similarly describes a sector where “Retail Activity Keeps Climbing,” citing “about 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000” and “roughly 1.29 million active wallets.”

Across outlets, the behavioral change is repeatedly tied to how users access markets: CoinDesk says “Wallets are emerging as key entry points,” while LesNews describes “wallets serve as the primary access points for users.”

CoinDesk also quotes Bitget Wallet’s Alvin Kan saying, “Prediction markets are becoming less about capital and more about consistent, repeated actions,” and Polymarket’s Elden Mirzoian adding, “We’re seeing a shift from episodic trading to more continuous engagement.”

As prediction markets become more embedded in everyday trading, the legal and regulatory fight in the United States is widening in parallel.

CoinMarketCap says Polymarket is “seeking approval to bring its main exchange back to U.S. users,” while Roundhill’s “election-linked prediction-market ETFs could begin trading as soon as May 5.”

CoinDesk

The same report describes the Commodity Futures Trading Commission suing “New York and Wisconsin” “in a bid to block state-level restrictions on prediction markets,” and it adds that “U.S. senators voted to bar themselves from trading event contracts.”

The federal-state clash is detailed through state actions against major platforms: Wisconsin “sued Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, Crypto.com, and Coinbase over sports-related event contracts,” arguing the products violate state gambling laws.

CoinMarketCap says the CFTC responded by suing “Wisconsin officials to block enforcement,” and it also says “The agency also sued New York as part of the widening federal–state clash.”

It further notes that “a coalition of 38 state attorneys general backed Massachusetts in a similar case against Kalshi.”

In the background of these disputes, the sector is also packaging political exposure into mainstream financial wrappers: CoinMarketCap says Roundhill is preparing to launch “six event contract ETFs,” including funds that track “which party controls the presidency, the Senate, and the House.”

The report frames these ETF products as a way to trade political events “without using a dedicated prediction market platform,” by packaging exposure into “SEC-registered ETFs.”

Beyond court filings and ETF filings, the sector is also moving to address market integrity and insider trading concerns.

“Prediction markets are ditching the 'casino' label to become a regular part of how people track the news A new report from Bitget and Polymarket reveals that prediction markets are evolving into a $240 billion industry driven by retail users who are trading more frequently on everything from crypto to politics”

CoinDesk

Bitget reports that “Polymarket teams up with Chainalysis to introduce detection models that combat the use of insider information in the prediction markets.”

It says the collaboration includes tools Chainalysis developed for its cryptocurrency exchange, including a detection model that “aims to identify patterns consistent with insider information about the prediction markets.”

Bitget’s account adds that “Other tools will provide evidence to government agencies and regulators, in addition to strengthening protection against cybersecurity threats.”

The same article quotes Polymarket’s general counsel, Neal Kumar, stating that the collaboration with Chainalysis will help Polymarket “detect problematic trades.”

It also says Polymarket “updated its rules to prohibit transactions based on stolen confidential information and illegal internal data, as well as to prevent bets by those who could influence the outcome of events.”

Bitget’s framing ties these steps to pressure on the sector: it says “In recent months, a series of especially lucrative and timely insider trading operations have put the sector under the spotlight.”

The result is a picture of a market trying to scale while building controls that match the shift toward “continuous platforms” and frequent retail participation described elsewhere.

Multiple reports emphasize that retail participation—not whale concentration—is driving the day-to-day activity in prediction markets.

CoinDesk says the report is based on activity from “1.29 million wallets in the first quarter,” and it highlights that “More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during the quarter.”

LesNews

CoinMarketCap similarly states that “Most trading activity is driven by a small group of whales,” but it immediately adds that “Retail users still account for the bulk of activity,” and it repeats the retail threshold with “About 82.3% of users traded less than $10,000.”

LesNews and MEXC both describe the same retail-dominant pattern while adding additional engagement metrics.

LesNews says “1.29 million active wallets during the first quarter,” and it repeats that “More than 82% of users traded less than $10,000 during this quarter.”

MEXC adds a different behavioral indicator: “The average number of active days per user nearly quadrupled in Q1, rising from 2.5 to 9.9,” which it presents as evidence that users are returning more regularly.

MEXC also cites category splits, saying “Sports markets dominated activity with $10.1 billion for the quarter, while political markets accounted for about $5 billion.”

Across these accounts, the market’s growth is tied to frequency and access rather than larger bets: CoinDesk says users are “engaging in smaller trades more regularly,” and it quotes Alvin Kan about “more taps per day, not bigger trades.”

The reports also describe how platform architecture and new tools are shaping who can participate in prediction markets and how quickly the sector can scale.

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Cryptopolitan

MEXC says Polymarket “operates directly on-chain through the Polygon network,” allowing users to “bet on real-world outcomes without intermediaries,” and it contrasts this with “centralized marketplaces such as Kalshi.”

@coindesk

It ties the on-chain approach to transparency and settlement, saying Polymarket’s “Polygon-based model emphasizes user sovereignty and on-chain settlement.”

Cryptopolitan adds that “white-label tools” are opening the market to new players, and it says “Sports and politics dominate, with white-label tools opening the market to new players.”

It describes a specific competitor dynamic through XO Market, saying “XO Market is challenging its competitors with a user-driven model and has raised $6 million since November,” and it adds that “Since its launch, the platform has processed more than $150 million in trading activity.”

Cryptopolitan also describes how user-generated markets work: “XO Market lets users create their own markets and receive a share of the revenues generated by those markets,” and it says the platform is preparing to launch “XO Vaults.”

CoinDesk and LesNews both connect the platform shift to the broader “structural change” in how markets are used, with CoinDesk saying prediction prices are “increasingly used alongside traditional data” and LesNews saying prices “are beginning to sit alongside traditional data sources in media and financial analyses.”

Taken together, the sector’s next phase appears to be a combination of on-chain settlement, governance and insider-trade detection, and new ways for third parties to create and distribute markets.