Carnegie Warns Ahmed Al-Sharaa’s Transitional Government Risks Replacing Assad’s Rule in Syria

A Carnegie Endowment for International Peace analysis says Syria’s transition has shown “patterns of governance that are all too reminiscent of the Assad regime’s rule” after President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s transitional government formed following the regime’s collapse in December 2024.

“The Central Bank of Syria opened a branch in Idlib Governorate yesterday, Wednesday, after more than 11 years of closure, as part of a plan to strengthen its presence in the provinces, in parallel with the governor of the bank announcing the start of a gradual plan to withdraw the Turkish lira from markets in the northwestern part of the country”

Al-Jazeera Net

The report argues that al-Sharaa has appointed “almost exclusively family members and longtime Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) loyalists” to control key economic and security decisions, and that he has scaled Idlib’s “Salvation Government” model to govern a nation-state of 26 million people.

Al-Jazeera Net

It warns that without “interventions both at the decision-making level and the societal level,” Syria risks “progressively replacing one authoritarian system with another and reproducing the conditions that caused the civil war.”

The analysis also says the transitional government inherited a state “pre-2011” after fourteen years of war, with the economy “contracted by an estimated 85% since 2011,” and with international sanctions and Assad regime looting leaving “the central bank reserves” emptied.

It frames the stakes as whether the transitional government is consolidating a patrimonial regime with “cronyism and patronage networks,” rather than building accountable institutions under “limited resources and no democratic mandate.”

Le Devoir reports that U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Syria could be “only a few weeks, or perhaps a few months, away from a potential collapse and a large-scale civil war.”

The same Le Devoir account links Rubio’s remarks to the European Union’s announcement of lifting “all economic sanctions against Damascus,” and it quotes Rubio saying the transitional authorities are “facing deep internal mistrust in this country.”

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Le Devoir says U.S. President Donald Trump announced from Riyadh that he was lifting U.S. sanctions on Syria and met interim Syrian president Ahmad al-Chareh, describing him as “a ‘handsome young man,’” and noting that “Their backgrounds have not been checked with the FBI.”

It adds that Syrian Defense Minister Mourhaf Abou Qasra gave armed groups “a ten-day deadline” to join national forces after the eviction of Bachar al-Assad.

In the same period, Le Devoir says the head of Syrian diplomacy welcomed the sanctions decision as “a new historic step,” quoting Assaad al-Chaibani on X that “This decision will strengthen security, stability and prosperity in Syria.”

Multiple sources describe steps to rebuild financial infrastructure in Idlib, including the Central Bank of Syria reopening a branch in Idlib Governorate after more than ten years of closure.

Enab Baladi says the Central Bank reopened “today, Wednesday, July 1,” and it quotes Raslan saying the next phase will see “gradual withdrawal of the Turkish lira from circulation in the governorate.”

Al-Jazeera Net reports that the central bank opened the Idlib branch “yesterday, Wednesday,” and it quotes Governor Safwat Raslan saying the plan aims at “no new quantities of the Turkish lira are pumped into the Syrian market.”

Al-Jazeera Net also says Idlib Governorate issued “in December 2025 a circular” obliging directorates and institutions, including banks, fuel stations, bakeries, and exchange offices, to deal exclusively in the Syrian pound, with exchange rates clearly displayed.

The sources also include on-the-ground reactions, with a Syria Now reporter quoting Idlib resident Ammar Badla saying “the multiplicity of currencies weighed heavily on residents and caused material losses due to exchange rate fluctuations,” and a public transport bus driver warning that “fixing fuel sales in Syrian currency would cost us new losses.”