Cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare — and catching the U.S. off guard

In Erbil, journalist Wladimir van Wilgenburg describes daily Iranian drone incursions, with U.S. defense systems destroying incoming drones and most of them failing to reach their targets.

“Cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare — and catching the U”

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As Operation Epic Fury enters its third week, the U.S. and analysts ask how long defense systems can hold off such attacks in the Middle East and whether Washington underestimated the Iranian drone threat.

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Across the Gulf, Iran's cheap Shahed-136 drones are intercepted by costly interceptors, highlighting a sharp cost disparity between drones and the missiles used to stop them.

The conflict has produced casualties and attacks on targets, including six U.S. servicemembers killed in Kuwait, petroleum facilities hit in the United Arab Emirates, two Iranian drones striking the U.S. embassy in Riyadh, and a drone attack on the U.S. embassy in Iraq this week.

Cheap drones have reshaped warfare and crossed into theaters beyond Iran, influencing battles in Gaza, Sudan, and Ukraine.

In Gaza, Israel has used drones primarily for surveillance but increasingly for combat, with eyewitnesses describing drone use including sniper drones.

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Drones have also figured in Sudan, where Iranian-made drones have been supplied to government forces for use against rebels.

In Ukraine, off-the-shelf FPV drones helped Kyiv strike Russian armor, and the Shahed and Geran designs have spread, with Zelenskyy saying Russia has launched more than 57,000 Shaheds at Ukrainian cities and Kyiv answering with thousands of strikes.

Ukraine has even discussed countering with homegrown Sting interceptors, but a Fox News interview featured President Trump saying the United States does not need their help.

Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began last month, sophisticated missile-defense systems in the region have been pressed into service against Tehran's drone attacks but have not stopped them all.

“Cheap drones are reshaping modern warfare — and catching the U”

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The UAE's Ministry of Defense reported that since the onset of the aggression it has engaged 304 ballistic missiles, 15 cruise missiles, and 1,627 UAVs.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said drone attacks are down about 95% since the start of the war, but Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center cautions that this does not mean the threat is over.

Grieco suggests the drop could reflect reduced Iranian capacity or tactical recalibration.

Analysts describe two parallel air wars: a high-altitude campaign where U.S. and Israeli forces suppress Iran's air defenses and leadership, and a low-altitude fight in which Shahed drones threaten bases and infrastructure.

Massicot argues that drones could take over some combat functions from humans, freeing soldiers to focus on tasks requiring a human eye.

Rogers notes a drone revolution but warns that the Ukraine-Russia stalemate complicates the practical takeaway.

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While Shaheds headline the drone story, experts say no single drone is transformative; the broader proliferation marks a new chapter in air power and air defense.