CryptoRank Says Bitcoin Is Overheating Before Mid-April Halving Cuts Miner Rewards 50%

Bitcoin’s price is being framed as “overheating” for the first time ever before halving, with CryptoRank pointing to a monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) “above 70” as the coin enters the lead-up to a mid-April reward cut.

CryptoRank says the Bitcoin network is set to halve miner rewards in mid-April, cutting rewards distributed to miners by 50% from the current level of 6.125 BTC, and it describes the event as occurring roughly every 200,000 blocks.

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TradingView instead anchors the debate on cycle timing, saying Jurrien Timmer at Fidelity macro lead calls a $65K Bitcoin bottom in 2026 and argues Bitcoin may have ended its historical four-year cycle, with “2026 could be a ‘year off’ (or ‘off year’) for Bitcoin.”

TradingView also reports that Tom Shaughnessy of Delphi Digital expects new all-time highs for Bitcoin in 2026 after a record $19 billion crypto market crash at the beginning of October, writing that the market is working through a “one-time disastrous 10/10 liquidation event.”

While market-cycle forecasts compete, multiple outlets focus on whether halvings weaken Bitcoin’s security, with Bitget saying Fidelity pushed back against concerns that long-term security will deteriorate as mining rewards decline.

Bitget attributes the argument to Fidelity research analyst Daniel Gray, who wrote that “Despite declining issuance, miner incentives — and by extension, network security — historically strengthened alongside Bitcoin's price,” and it ties that claim to average daily miner revenue rising from roughly $26,300 during Bitcoin’s first halving cycle to more than $40.2 million today.

Cointelegraph

Crypto Briefing similarly frames Fidelity’s June 2026 report “Bitcoin’s Programmed Security: Part Two” as arguing that rising hash rates, automatic difficulty adjustments, and growing transaction fee revenue create a security model that “doesn’t collapse when subsidies decline.”

Crypto Briefing adds that during the April 2024 halving, transaction fees in a single block reached approximately 12 times the block subsidy, and it links that spike partly to the Runes protocol launch creating unusual demand for block space.

CoinGecko’s outlook widens the range of expectations for 2026, saying analysts forecast Bitcoin from $60K to $250K and describing a shift after Bitcoin reached $126,000 on October 6 before falling back toward the $88,000 range by December.

“Fidelity Digital Assets has pushed back against concerns that Bitcoin’s long-term security will deteriorate as mining rewards decline, arguing in a new research report that the network’s economic incentives remain sufficient to secure the blockchain over time”

Bitget

CoinGecko reports that Citigroup maintains cautiously optimistic targets around $143,000 - $189,000, while it also includes a bullish extreme projecting $250,000 or higher and notes that some have pushed those targets into 2027 given 2026 uncertainty.

BeInCrypto frames the cycle question as whether the 4-year pattern is “dead,” stating that Bitcoin hit a new all-time high before the April 2024 halving for the first time, and it says spot Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 front-loaded demand and changed the traditional cycle timeline.

BeInCrypto also describes the halving schedule as occurring roughly every four years, or every 210,000 blocks, and it states that after the April 2024 halving the reward fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, keeping the next halving debate tied to supply changes.