USA · 26 May, 2026 · 5 min read
Donald Trump Softens Stance On Prediction Markets After Saying They Became A Casino
Trump softens opposition, cites support from experienced participants and smart people. Other countries are adopting prediction markets; the U.S. could fall behind.
Tone/stance shift emphasis.
5 of 6 outlets skipped it: wisconsin filed Dane County complaints against Crypto.com, Polymarket, Kalshi, and distribution partners Coinbase and Robinhood..
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Same story, two versions
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Cointelegraph
“"Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino," Trump said on Thursday. "And you look at what’s going on all over the world and Europe, and every place they’re doing these betting things. I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is."”Read the original ↗
WEEX
“"I know some very smart people who like prediction markets. Many other countries are doing this, and if we don't do it, other countries will isolate us."”Read the original ↗
Shows how different outlets frame the same development as either a negative, global caution (casino critique) or a pragmatic shift toward international participation (softening stance).
From Casino to “Smart People”
U.S. President Donald Trump shifted his public stance on prediction markets within days, first describing them as part of a world that had become “somewhat of a casino” and later saying “I know some people who are very smart. They like it.”
“Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino”
In a White House appearance on Thursday, Trump said, “Well, you know, the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino,” adding, “I was never much in favor of it. I don’t like it conceptually, but it is what it is.”
He also said, “I think that I’m not happy with any of that stuff, but they have all these different sites of predictive markets. It’s a crazy world. It’s a much different world than it was,” according to the Cointelegraph account of the remarks.C
Then, speaking to reporters in Florida on Saturday, Trump acknowledged, “I don’t know. I know some people who are very smart. They like it,” and added, “They disagree, but they like it.”
He tied the change to international adoption, saying, “A lot of other countries are doing it, and when the other countries do it, we get left out in the cold if we don’t do it.”
Cointelegraph’s report also placed the comments in the context of prediction markets’ rapid growth, noting that Polymarket and Kalshi together saw a record $23.6 billion in trading volumes in March, citing Token Terminal.C
Trading Volume and Platforms
The Trump remarks landed as prediction markets expanded in measurable ways, with multiple outlets pointing to Token Terminal’s volume figures for Polymarket and Kalshi.
Cointelegraph reported that “Prediction markets such as the popular Polymarket and Kalshi have surged in use over the past year,” and said “the two platforms together seeing a record $23.6 billion in trading volumes in March, according to Token Terminal.”C
Crypto.news similarly described “rising activity across platforms” and said Token Terminal data showed “Polymarket and Kalshi together recorded $23.6 billion in trading volume in March, setting a monthly high.”
TradingView’s account repeated the same $23.6 billion figure and tied it to the timing of Trump’s comments in Florida.
The reports also described how Trump’s political and business connections intersect with the sector’s growth, including Donald Trump Jr.’s involvement with Polymarket and Kalshi.
Cointelegraph said Trump Jr. “invested in Polymarket in August and joined the company’s advisory board,” and added that he “is also an adviser to rival Kalshi, taking on the role in January 2025.”C
CFTC vs. States
As Trump’s tone softened, legal conflict over prediction markets intensified in the United States, with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and multiple state authorities taking opposing positions.
“The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against New York in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York”
Crypto.news reported that “The Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed a lawsuit against New York in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York,” arguing that “federal law grants it exclusive authority over event-based contracts listed on registered exchanges.”
The same report quoted CFTC Chair Michael Selig saying, “CFTC-registered exchanges have faced an onslaught of state lawsuits seeking to limit Americans’ access to event contracts and undermine the CFTC’s sole regulatory jurisdiction over prediction markets.”
Les Echos described the dispute as a broader “war over sports betting” between “the federal government and the U.S. states,” and said Mike Selig “threw down the gauntlet on Tuesday by declaring his agency the sole legitimate regulator of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.”
Les Echos also quoted Selig’s threat on X: “To those who seek to challenge our authority in this domain, I want to be clear: we will see you in court,” and included the line “we will see you in court” in its framing.
Crypto.news added that New York had “brought actions against Coinbase and Gemini over alleged violations of state gambling rules,” and also targeted “aspects of Kalshi’s offerings tied to sports outcomes.”
Regulation, Enforcement, and Arguments
The competing legal theories described in the reports center on whether event-based contracts should be treated as commodities derivatives under federal authority or as wagering under state gambling laws.
Crypto.news said prosecutors argued that “users take positions on real-world outcomes with fixed payouts,” and that this structure “fits the legal definition of wagering under state law.”
It then quoted Attorney General Josh Kaul: “Thinly disguising unlawful conduct doesn’t make it lawful,” as part of the state-side argument.
The same outlet said court filings across these cases describe contracts linked to “sports and elections” as “indistinguishable from betting,” while “platform operators continue to argue that their products fall under federal commodities law.”
Crypto.news also reported that “Parallel enforcement actions have emerged in states such as Nevada, Massachusetts, and Illinois,” where regulators issued “bans, lawsuits, or cease-and-desist orders tied to event contracts.”
Les Echos framed the CFTC’s approach as treating prediction markets “like traditional derivatives markets, similar to the CME, and not as bookmakers who orchestrate bets,” and said sports have “come to occupy a dominant place” on the platforms.
Corporate Ties and Next Steps
The reports also connect the regulatory fight to corporate ties involving Trump and his family, while describing additional plans for prediction-market products.
“Trump Media, said in October that it would roll out prediction markets in partnership with Crypto.com on its flagship social media site, Truth Social”
Cointelegraph said Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr. “invested in Polymarket in August and joined the company’s advisory board,” and “is also an adviser to rival Kalshi, taking on the role in January 2025.”C
It further said “Trump Media, said in October that it would roll out prediction markets in partnership with Crypto.com on its flagship social media site, Truth Social,” and that Trump “divested his stake in Trump Media upon entering office, transferring his shares to a trust for which Trump Jr. is the sole trustee.”
Crypto.news echoed the Truth Social plan, stating “Trump Media announced plans in October to launch prediction market products in partnership with Crypto.com through its Truth Social platform,” and repeated that “Trump transferred his stake in Trump Media to a trust upon entering office, with Trump Jr. named as the sole trustee.”
Les Echos highlighted the same family-linked involvement in its framing of the federal-state clash, saying “the offensive by the head of the derivatives supervision agency is all the more suspicious because Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, sits on Kalshi's advisory board and has invested in Polymarket.”
In the regulatory arena, Les Echos said Mike Selig, “the head of the derivatives regulatory agency,” declared his agency the “sole legitimate regulator” of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket, and warned “we will see you in court.”