Egypt’s Population Growth Threatens Economic Strain, VOA Afrique Warns

Egypt’s population growth has been framed as a looming threat, with VOA Afrique saying Egypt is the most populous country in the Arab world with roughly 96 million inhabitants and adding about 1.6 million more each year.

“Perhaps Egyptians will never forget the song Hasneen and Mahmiden, which became famous in the 1980s and stood as the icon of the largest campaigns promoting family planning in the most populous Arab country, before other campaigns followed in which many artists and public figures participated”

Al-Jazeera Net

VOA Afrique reported that the birth rate was 28.6 per thousand in 2016 and that, at that pace, Egypt would have 119 million inhabitants by 2030 according to a United Nations report from May 2017.

Al-Jazeera Net

The same report described Cairo’s density as around 50,000 inhabitants per square kilometer in 2016, nearly ten times higher than that of London, and it tied the demographic pressure to economic strain after the devaluation of the national currency in November 2016.

VOA Afrique quoted General Abou Bakr al-Gendi, head of Capmas, saying, "The more poverty increases, the higher the birth rate rises" because parents see children as a source of income.

In the village of Oum Khanan, VOA Afrique also quoted Hiam Mohamed, a mother of three, saying, "I want my sons to lack nothing," as she obtained contraceptive pills from a family planning center provided free of charge by the Ministry of Health.

Anadolu Ajansı reported that Egypt recorded the "lowest" population growth rate in 50 years in 2023, with a rate of 1.4% according to a release from the Ministry of Planning and Economic Development.

The same Anadolu Ajansı article said the ministry stated Egypt "has achieved great successes in reducing the population growth rate by about 46% between 2017 and 2023," dropping from 2.6% in 2017 to 1.4% in 2023.

Anadolu Ajansı

It also cited the ministry’s figures that the number of births during 2023 rose to about 2 million, recording a 15% decrease compared with 2018 and a 7% decrease compared with 2022.

Anadolu Ajansı further linked the shift to state action, saying President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi launched the National Project for the Development of the Egyptian Family in February 2022 with the aim of controlling "rapid and uncontrolled growth of the population".

Les Echos described the government slogan Itnein kafaya ("two is enough") and said the family planning campaign launched in 2020 sought to curb Egypt’s population explosion, while it reported that contraception promotion reduced the fertility rate from 3.5 to 2.9 children per woman between 2015 and 2021, according to CAPMAS.

DW warned that the decline in fertility is becoming a regional threat, saying the average number of children per woman fell from 6.8 in 1970 to 2.6 today, a 62% decline, and it described a "Demographic Winter" threatening the Arab world.

“Three years ago, experts and specialists worldwide warned that the decline in fertility had become a crisis threatening countries around the world after it began in wealthy nations, where the 15 largest economies in the world were experiencing the lowest fertility levels, according to data published by The Economist”

DW

DW also quoted Egypt’s President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi from 2014, saying, "Population growth is consuming all the gains of development" and adding, "If we reach 200 million, Egypt will be unlivable."

In contrast, Al-Jazeera Net framed the issue as a shift from fear of a population explosion to concern about low births, writing that family planning efforts "succeeded more than necessary" and that years past saw rising talk of fears of fertility decline.

Al-Jazeera Net also argued that the concern decades after high birth rates turned to low births "in the midst of economic crises that made marriage and childbearing a distant luxury," connecting demographic outcomes to economic conditions.

Les Echos added that Egypt’s population growth continues to pose a threat to Cairo despite a fertility decline, and it reported that the country now has 1.5 million more inhabitants today than at the end of 2022 while noting that Egypt imports around 40% of its food needs, especially wheat.