Escalating Gulf war highlights limits of US strategy, search for mediators intensifies - analysis

The war with Iran entered its fourth week on March 22, which began on February 28.

“The war with Iran entered its fourth week on March 22, which began on February 28”

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In war's last developments, US President Donald Trump threatened Iran on March 21, saying it has 48 hours to open the Strait of Hormuz.

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The US has been threatening to strike Iran’s power plants or energy grid if this does not happen.

However, as the rhetoric increases, there is always hope that a mediator may step forward and the war could eventually end.

Journalist Barak Ravid posted a new piece at Axios on X.

“After three weeks of war, Trump's team is currently trying to answer two key questions: Who in Iran is the best point of contact for negotiations, and which country is the best mediator.

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Marc Caputo and I write for Axios,” he noted.

At Turkey’s state media TRT, there have been talks of how countries might help the US, Iran and Israel come to some kind of agreement.

“The war with Iran entered its fourth week on March 22, which began on February 28”

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“Russia, Turkey, China and partners offer to broker Middle East peace deal: Moscow.

Russian Foreign Ministry stressed collective security proposals and region-wide negotiations as ways to stabilize the Middle East conflict,” TRT notes.

This is important because it shows some countries are thinking about which venue might help end the war.

The US has demands of Iran, which also has demands, but none of them currently appear to be workable because the Islamic Republic wants guarantees it won’t be attacked again, and claims it wants compensation for the war and other concessions.

Escalating conflict shows risks to Middle East stability Tehran has shown in the past that it won’t accept the US terms, relating to the nuclear and missile programs, either.

Iran believes that it was twice lured by the US into talks, only to have the US and Israel then attack Iran.

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Islamic Republic's Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi was involved in those talks, in which Oman also played a key role.

Oman appears to have come away with the sense that it was used or betrayed.

The perception in Tehran is that the US and Israel were planning the war for months, and the talks were merely used to play out the clock.

The same thing happened before the June 2025 war, but Tehran has been very reticent to walk back into talks under this cloud.

With Oman also feeling burned, it is not clear where the countries may find a neutral venue that would want to host talks.

Turkey and Qatar are obvious choices, as Qatar helped with the ceasefire in 2025 after the 12-day war.

But Tehran has attacked Qatar, which makes Doha a complex venue.

Turkey is a member of NATO and not involved in the war.

In addition, Egypt is another country that could be involved.

It has had increasingly better ties with Iran over the years, and its president was recently on a trip to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.

Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi has had positive relations with the Trump administration in the past.

Kazakhstan could also be a significant regionally because it has previously served as a diplomatic venue for major talks involving Iran.

It hosted the Astana process on Syria, where representatives from Iran, Russia, and Turkey met beginning in 2017 to try to reduce violence in the Syrian civil war.

More recently, in November 2025, Kazakhstan formally joined the Abraham Accords, a US-brokered framework of diplomatic normalization with Israel and other states, marking an expansion of the accords into Central Asia.

Turkey’s Anadolu noted on March 19 that “US President Donald Trump has invited his Kazakh counterpart Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to the next Board of Peace meeting, as well as the G20 summit to be held in Miami later this year, Kazakhstan’s presidential press secretary said Thursday.”

He report goes on to say “in a statement published on Telegram, Aibek Smadiyarov said Trump sent a letter to Tokayev expressing appreciation for their meeting at the inaugural Board of Peace session held in Washington on Feb. 19.”

It’s possible that this could be a sign that Kazakhstan could play a role in peace efforts regarding Iran.

So far, it’s not clear if Kazakhstan or other Central Asian countries are going to be more engaged on this issue.

India is a country that has been in touch with Iran, and the countries maintain positive ties.

According to the Indian government website News on Air, on March 21, External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar spoke to his Iranian counterpart, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, this evening.

He conveyed greetings for Navroz and Eid.

In a social media post, Dr. Jaishankar said the conversation was on the latest developments regarding the conflict and its implications for the larger region.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on March 21 that he had spoken with President Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian and conveyed Eid and Nowruz greetings.

We expressed hope that this festive season brings peace, stability and prosperity to West Asia.

Condemned attacks on critical infrastructure in the region, which threaten regional stability and disrupt global supply chains.

Reiterated the importance of safeguarding freedom of navigation and ensuring that shipping lanes remain open and secure.

Appreciated Iran’s continued support for the safety and security of Indian nationals in Iran.

India is also a friend of the US and Israel.

As such, it could play a key role in the future in terms of issues relating to Iran and regional stability.