روزنامه دنیای اقتصادDollar prices and gold prices continued to slide, with a decline in demand and cautious sentiment. The currency market on Monday saw a noticeable drop in prices. The free-dollar rate, which had been trading in higher channels a few days earlier, fell by 4,560 tomans to 153,790 tomans, and the Herat dollar also dropped to the bottom of its channel at around 150,000 tomans. This price drop was due to reduced political tensions and speculation about the possible resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States. Positive news related to these negotiations reduced market worries and also lowered precautionary demand in the currency market. This led to a relative stabilization of prices in the currency market and accelerated the downward trend in the dollar. In this context, market analysts forecast that the dollar will stabilize in the short term around 153,000 tomans. If no new political or economic developments occur, it’s expected to stay at this level with minor fluctuations. However, the market remains highly sensitive to momentary political news, and any change in political or news status could trigger substantial volatility. The dollar—stabilization in the 153,000-toman channel and a cautious outlook. The free-dollar market yesterday opened with a negative gap of 470 tomans one channel lower at 157,980 tomans, briefly rising to the bottom of the 158,000-toman channel before turning downward to 153,790 tomans. This notable drop in the dollar price was driven by two main factors: first, reduced demand from buyers due to political optimism about a possible resumption of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, and second, a relative increase in supply in the currency market that pushed the dollar price lower. Analysts believe that the dollar will stabilize in the short term around 153,000 tomans, but the trend remains influenced by political developments, and any change could affect prices. Given the easing of tensions and positive news about Iran–U.S. talks, there is a possibility that the dollar could move within lower ranges than 153,000 tomans. Of course, one should remain attentive to new news, since the currency market is highly sensitive to such developments and could experience significant volatility. If tensions continue to ease and speculation strengthens, a stabilization of the dollar at lower levels could be expected, but if negative news about negotiations emerges, the possibility of the dollar returning to higher levels exists. Market for gold and coins: continuing downward trend and price corrections. The gold and coin market on Monday was influenced by two main factors that led to a sharp drop in prices. The first factor was the decline in global gold prices due to the strengthening dollar and reduced political tensions between Iran and the United States, and the second factor was the decline in the domestic dollar rate, which directly affected gold and coin prices. These factors, along with positive speculation about the potential start of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States, reduced demand for safe-haven in the currency and gold markets. Analysts believe the gold market has entered a corrective phase and the downward price trend will continue. In these conditions, the gold and coin market will likely remain briefly influenced by external factors. If the corrective trend continues, prices may move to lower levels. Also, strengthening or weakening political news and the status of nuclear talks between Iran and the United States can have a significant impact on the gold and coin market. Global gold: notable drop following dollar strength and political news. The global price of gold fell sharply on Monday; the global ounce had stood at $4,892 on Saturday and Sunday due to weekend holidays, but on Monday morning opened with a negative swing and moved down to $4,427, a drop of $465. Gold later recovered somewhat, rising to $4,829, and at the time of writing this report was trading at $4,682. This decline was mainly driven by the strengthening dollar and reduced tensions between Iran and the United States. Gold market analysts believe this price drop is part of a natural corrective phase after recent gains. The dollar’s return to lower channels and the global decline in demand for gold under current economic conditions contributed to the continued fall in global gold prices. These changes had a direct impact on the domestic gold and coin market and continued the downward price trend in this market. 18-karat gold: drop to 17,600,000 tomans. In the domestic market, the price of 18-karat gold fell significantly. Each gram of 18-karat gold opened at a 900,000-toman negative gap at 18,052,000 tomans and finished the day at 17,637,000 tomans. This decline was mainly due to the drop in global gold prices and the fall in the domestic dollar rate. Analysts believe the gold market has entered a corrective phase and prices appear to be aligning to more rational levels. Reduced psychological pressures and recent market enthusiasm have accelerated the downward price trend in gold, and this trend is likely to continue in the short term. Emami coin: decline of 9,300,000 tomans to 180,200,000 tomans. On Monday, the Emami coin fell notably under the influence of lower global gold prices and a weaker dollar. It opened with a negative gap of 6,000,000 tomans at 183,500,000 tomans, rose to 185,200,000 tomans but faced resistance at that level and then retreated to 180,200,000 tomans. Analysts attribute this price drop mainly to the decline in gold prices and the weaker dollar. Weaker safe-haven demand and global gold price volatility reduced demand for coins, contributing to the ongoing downward trend in this market. Half coin, quarter coin, and gram coin: declines across all pieces. Half coin started with a negative gap of 1,400,000 tomans at 98,500,000 tomans and closed at 94,500,000 tomans after sliding to the bottom of the 94,000,000-toman channel. The quarter coin opened with a positive gap of 200,000 tomans at 53,700,000 tomans and closed at the bottom of the 52,000,000-toman channel. The gram coin opened with a negative gap of 1,000,000 tomans at the bottom of the 26,000,000-toman channel, briefly rose by 500,000 tomans, and finally closed at 26,000,000 tomans. Gold bullion: drop to 17,600,000 tomans. Gold bullion opened with a negative gap of 3,900,000 tomans at 78,200,000 tomans and moved downward to 76,400,000 tomans. This drop in bullion prices was mainly due to the fall in global gold prices and the decline in the domestic dollar rate. Analysts believe that with the decrease in precautionary demand and improved political conditions, gold bullion has entered a corrective phase and its fluctuations are naturally easing. Price forecasts for the dollar: stabilization in the 153,000-toman channel or a downward trend toward lower supports? Currency market analysts expect the dollar to stabilize in the short term around 153,000 tomans. This level is seen as a support point for the dollar and, if the positive momentum of Iran–U.S. negotiations continues and no negative developments occur domestically or internationally, could help maintain relative market calm. Given reduced political tensions and optimism about nuclear talks, the dollar may remain in this range for a while with limited volatility. However, if political and economic developments within Iran, especially in the Iran–U.S. negotiations, move positively, there is a chance the dollar could fall to lower levels. The next support is at 150,000 tomans, viewed by analysts as a key point for assessing the future dollar trend; if the dollar fails to hold this support, it could reach 148,000 tomans, which could offer a good entry point for new buyers. In a scenario where the currency market remains highly sensitive to momentary news, the 160,000-toman corridor is seen as a key resistance. If there is volatility or negative news from negotiations, the dollar could move toward this corridor. Breaking through 160,000 tomans would likely herald a new upward trend that could push prices higher than that. Thus, political developments and economic news in the short term will play a major role in determining the dollar’s direction. Forecast for 18-karat gold: will prices stabilize at 17,600,000 tomans? Gold market analysts expect that in the short term, the price of 18-karat gold will likely stabilize around 17,600,000 tomans. This support level is currently viewed as a key mark for the market, and maintaining it could lead to price stabilization. Analysts believe that psychological pressures and market volatility in recent weeks have eased to some extent, and the market has entered a corrective phase that has reduced prices. If nuclear talks between Iran and the United States proceed negatively, we may see a shift in the gold market trend. In that case, the resistance level of 18,100,000 tomans could be breached and the price of 18-karat gold could move higher than this figure. Analysts consider these resistance levels critical for continuing the upward trend, and breaking through them could push prices toward 18,500,000 tomans. However, if negotiations between Iran and the United States move toward an agreement or positive news emerges, there is a possibility of further price declines toward the 16,800,000 tomans support level. This level could serve as a strong baseline, but if breached, gold prices could continue lower. Forecast for Emami coin: stabilization in the 180,000,000 tomans range or continuation of the decline? Emami coin yesterday in the gold and coin market, affected by the drop in global gold prices and the decline in the dollar rate, experienced significant price changes. Analysts predict that Emami coin will stabilize in the short term within the 180,000,000 tomans range. This support level is currently considered a key point for investors. If the downward trend in the gold and coin market continues and there are no major changes in the dollar rate, the likelihood of stabilizing the Emami coin price at this higher level is strong. If Iran–U.S. negotiations turn negative, there is also a possibility that Emami coin could rise toward 185,000,000 tomans. In this case, the main resistance for Emami coin would be at 185,000,000 tomans, and if breached, Emami coin could reach prices above 187,000,000 tomans. This depends on ongoing negotiations and their impact on demand in the coin and gold market. But if positive news from Iran–U.S. negotiations is released or tensions ease, there is a possibility of the Emami coin price dropping toward 170,000,000 tomans. This support level could be a suitable entry point for new buyers. Overall, the Emami coin market remains highly sensitive to political and economic developments both domestically and internationally, and the market will continue to be influenced by these factors.
