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IMF Debt Warning
The IMF warned that global public debt is on track to breach 100 percent of GDP by 2029.
“Global public debt is on track to breach 100 percent of GDP in 2029, a level not seen since the aftermath of World War II”
Rodrigo Valdés said total global public debt rose to about 94 percent of global GDP in 2025.
The war in Iran constitutes a new source of fiscal pressure, disrupting energy supplies and tightening financial conditions.
Global gross public debt rose to 93.9 percent of GDP in 2025 and is projected to climb to 100 percent in 2029.
Interest payments have risen sharply from 2 percent of global GDP to nearly 3 percent in just four years.
The IMF said the US is running an overall public deficit equivalent to 7 to 8 percent of GDP and appears to have no debt consolidation plan.
Fiscal Strain from Middle East War
The IMF identified the Israeli-American war on Iran as a major new source of fiscal pressure.
The conflict is having tangible worldwide consequences, particularly through disruptions in energy markets.
Rising oil prices and supply uncertainties have forced governments into difficult policy choices.
The surge in energy prices has amplified inflationary pressures across global markets.
Governments are being pushed to expand spending even as fiscal space continues to shrink.
Higher global interest rates are increasing borrowing costs.
Debt Dynamics and Market Impact
The IMF projected the global debt ratio would rise to 100.1 percent in 2029.
“El Monitor Fiscal del FMI proyecta que la deuda pública global podría superar 100% del PIB para 2029”
The IMF cited major risk factors including spending pressures from the Middle East war and the spread of protectionism.
The IMF called for more sophisticated fiscal management.
The margin for an orderly fiscal adjustment is narrowing.
Bitcoin and Fiscal Instability
The IMF's warning has reignited debate about Bitcoin's role as an alternative asset.
Bitcoin sits entirely outside the architecture of traditional finance, with a supply capped at 21 million.
If debt grows faster than the economy, markets could start questioning governments' fiscal solvency.
The Bitcoin narrative has gained traction during past periods of stress in traditional finance.
Rising bond yields could be bearish for Bitcoin in the short term.