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Bernstein Projects Prediction Markets To Reach $1 Trillion By 2030 Led By Robinhood And Coinbase

14 April, 2026.Finance.14 sources

Key Takeaways

Bernstein projects prediction market volumes reach about $1 trillion by 2030.
Robinhood and Coinbase named as key drivers of growth.
Markets expanding beyond sports into economics, politics, and culture.

Prediction Market Surge

Prediction market volumes are on track to explode from $51 billion in 2025 to roughly $240 billion in 2026.

“Prediction market volumes to hit $1 trillion by 2030 with Robinhood, Coinbase as key players, Bernstein says The broker said prediction markets are scaling into a trillion-dollar asset class, driven by regulatory clarity, crypto rails and distribution via major trading platforms”

@coindesk

Bernstein projects growth to about $1 trillion by 2030 at an 80% compound annual growth rate.

@coindesk

Kalshi and Polymarket have already recorded about $60 billion in volume year-to-date, exceeding all of 2025.

Sports currently accounts for about 62% of volumes, but that share is expected to fall to roughly 31% by 2030.

Institutional participation is expected to grow, particularly for hedging event-driven risks.

Revenue and Distribution

Bernstein estimates industry revenues could expand from roughly $400 million in 2025 to $2.5 billion in 2026.

Robinhood has built a $350 million annualized revenue run rate from prediction markets within 12 months.

Benzinga

Coinbase entered the space through a partnership with Kalshi, providing access to more than 1,000 contracts.

Distribution is emerging as a key competitive moat.

Polymarket has recently moved away from a zero-fee model.

Regulatory Landscape

The CFTC has claimed exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets.

“Table of Contents Investment firm Bernstein has released a comprehensive analysis forecasting that prediction market trading volumes will climb to approximately $1 trillion by the end of this decade”