Iran after the war: Regional stability, great power rivalry and the future of West Asia

The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, together with the sudden death of Ali Khamenei and the elevation of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader, has introduced deep uncertainty into West Asian geopolitics.

“The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States represents one of the most consequential geopolitical crises in West Asia in decades”

The Times of India

The article reports Israel-US strikes across Iran, including strikes in Tehran.

The Times of India

It argues that the leadership transition—within the doctrine of Velayat-e-Faqih and after the eras of Ruhollah Khomeini and Ali Khamenei—represents a profound political shock.

It says Mojtaba Khamenei’s rise injects a dynastic element into a revolutionary system and that the new leadership may lean heavily on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to consolidate power, potentially pushing Iran toward a more security-centric political model.

Domestically, the article highlights persistent economic strain, citing sanctions, currency instability, inflation and unemployment.

It identifies repeated waves of suppressed social protest as a core challenge to regime legitimacy.

The Times of India

The piece emphasises the IRGC’s growing dominance in defence, infrastructure and strategic decision-making.

It explains Iran’s regional strategy relies on asymmetric power projection through allied groups and movements, notably Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shia militias in Iraq, the Syrian government and the Houthi movement in Yemen.

The article argues the war is unlikely to reduce Tehran’s reliance on these networks and may reinforce it.

The piece stresses that three long-standing dynamics—Iranian revolutionary ambition, Gulf monarchies' security concerns, and the US military presence—have been shaken, while China and Russia are asserting greater influence.

“The ongoing conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States represents one of the most consequential geopolitical crises in West Asia in decades”

The Times of India

It notes fragile and varied relations between Iran and Gulf states, highlighting Saudi Arabia's rivalry, the UAE's pragmatic ties, and Qatar and Oman's mediator roles.

The article points to Iran's strategic links to Iraq and Turkey.

It lists US objectives as deterring Iran, securing Israel, and protecting shipping.

The article flags the vulnerability of US bases such as Al Udeid Air Base, Naval Support Activity Bahrain, Al Dhafra Air Base, and Camp Arifjan to missile and drone attack.

It describes possible US shifts toward smaller, dispersed facilities and expanded missile defences.

The piece identifies energy risks from disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz that could affect oil prices and importers such as India, China, and Japan.

It outlines three possible regional trajectories after the war: controlled deterrence, intensified rivalry, or a multipolar order shaped by competing great powers.