Iran attacks may shift Gulf states from de-escalation to backing regime defeat - analysis

Iran continues its attacks on Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, and has shown that it is not a responsible steward of the Strait of Hormuz, which it has basically closed to traffic, causing a disruption in energy markets.

“As Iran continues its attacks on the Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, there could be a narrative shift about what should happen next”

The Jerusalem Post

Iran has launched thousands of drones and missiles at countries such as the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, with the UAE targeted the most and different sites struck in different places, including US forces and energy sites.

The Jerusalem Post

Iran has historically attacked oil tankers, including back in 2019 when it attacked Saudi Arabia using drones and cruise missiles, targeting the Abqaiq energy facility.

Iran has long been an aggressive country in the region.

As Iran's attacks continue, a narrative shift could emerge in Gulf capitals: states that were publicly cautious about war and preferred de-escalation may now want to see Iran defeated in a long-term campaign.

They may still be wary of escalation and are not prepared to commit their own armed forces, but some are more open to a longer campaign to ensure that Iran cannot threaten the region again.

The Jerusalem Post

The Gulf states prize regional stability, relying on trade and oil tankers able to transit the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has shown that it is not a responsible steward of the Strait, effectively closing it to traffic.

Disproportionate targeting of the UAE is partly due to the UAE’s ties to Israel.

Iran has backed militias in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, both of whom are a threat to the security of the Gulf countries.

“As Iran continues its attacks on the Gulf countries, particularly the UAE, there could be a narrative shift about what should happen next”

The Jerusalem Post

Saudi Arabia was very vocal in its opposition to Iran from 2012-2022, but a China and Iraq-backed deal helped Iran and Saudi Arabia appear to settle some of their differences.

Iran has been very vocal in its anger over the Abraham Accords, which Bahrain and the UAE joined in 2020.

Iran also did outreach to Egypt.

Qatar, Oman, and Kuwait have attempted to have amicable ties.

The Gulf states have had slightly different views of Iran over the years, but the region has shown signs of unity as Iran's attacks continue.

Bachar el-Halabi noted that senior Gulf officials have told him there is absolutely no way they would accept an outcome where Iran controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz, a global choke point governed by international maritime law that guarantees transit for all.

Hasan T. Alhasan, a senior fellow for Middle East Policy at IISS, commented on a headline at Al-Jazeera that the UAE could join an international effort led by the US to secure the Strait of Hormuz.

The Jerusalem Post

Yaroslav Trofimov noted that the UAE and other Gulf states want the Iranian regime neutered before the war ends so they can never be battered with missiles and drones again.

Ghanem Nuseibeh, a London-based consultant and analyst, argued that the optimal time for the Iran war to stop with the least damage has passed, and that if it stops now the regime will likely regroup for another round, while if it doesn’t stop there will be many months of attrition and not a near-term positive outcome.