Iraq war’s aftermath was a disaster for the US – the Iran war is headed in the same direction

Applying the Iraq lesson to Iran, the author warns that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps meets the criteria to fill any vacuum, being organized, armed, willing and controlling an estimated 30% to 40% of the Iranian economy through conglomerates and firms.

“The United States military achieved every objective it set when it went to war in Iraq in 2003”

The Conversation

Since Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s death at the start of the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign, the Revolutionary Guard has taken effective control of decision-making, and Mojtaba Khamenei was named supreme leader on March 8, 2026 in what the author calls a Revolutionary Guard-backed dynastic succession.

The Conversation

The piece says Washington lacks a credible plan for who would govern 92 million Iranians and notes that opposition groups (the Mujahedeen-e-Khalq, monarchists and democratic factions) lack domestic legitimacy and were already weakened or crushed (detained and killed in January).

The author highlights that the International Atomic Energy Agency has been unable to fully account for a stockpile of over 880 pounds of highly enriched uranium since the 2025 U.S. and Israeli strikes.

The author concludes that U.S. strikes have not resolved proliferation, have made the situation more dangerous and have widened the regional war, leaving Washington with only a 'theory of destruction' rather than a political strategy.