Israel Kills Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei in Tehran Strike

An Israeli strike in Tehran killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and was immediately followed by targeted activity on prediction markets: an account using the name “Magamyman” made more than $553,000 on Polymarket betting on Khamenei’s removal just before the strike.

“Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market site Polymarket about Iran and its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday”

NPR

Both NPR and Responsible Statecraft report the timing of large wagers around the attack, with Responsible Statecraft noting the trade occurred “hours before an Israeli attack in Tehran killed Ayatollah Khamenei.”

NPR

The trades drew scrutiny from U.S. lawmakers and market critics who say these platforms can enable people with privileged information to profit from lethal operations.

The wagers were not isolated: Responsible Statecraft documents widespread, high-volume trading across multiple prediction platforms tied to the Iran attacks, estimating more than $255 million wagered on Kalshi and Polymarket combined and noting half a dozen Polymarket accounts that made over $1.2 million betting that the U.S. would strike Iran by Feb. 28, 2026.

Responsible Statecraft also links the use of newly funded cryptocurrency wallets to some of these accounts, suggesting unusually timed funding patterns.

Responsible Statecraft

NPR’s reporting on the large Polymarket payout by “Magamyman” underscores the scale at which individual traders could profit.

Observers and the Responsible Statecraft authors raise the possibility that timing and volume of trades point to inside information or misuse by actors with privileged access, warning of a national-security problem posed by prediction markets.

“Prediction market trader 'Magamyman' made $553,000 on death of Iran's supreme leader An account trading under the username "Magamyman" made more than $553,000 placing bets on the prediction market site Polymarket about Iran and its Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, just before an Israeli strike killed him on Saturday”

NPR

Responsible Statecraft argues that government officials could both possess superior information and have incentives to manipulate operations for profit, writing “the incentive for prediction market abuse by government officials is, in our view, obvious for at least two reasons.”

NPR similarly records that the trades have prompted scrutiny from members of Congress and critics worried about classified-information leaks.

Both sources call for policy attention: Responsible Statecraft urges congressional action to address prediction-market risks, noting that Polymarket had previously been banned from operating in the U.S. under President Biden and arguing for reform.

NPR highlights the immediate political fallout in Washington from the trades tied to Khamenei’s death.

Responsible Statecraft

Responsible Statecraft also places the Iran-related trading in a pattern of earlier episodes where prediction markets paid out on sudden geopolitical events, citing an instance tied to Nicolás Maduro as a precedent for concern.