ISW: The effects of the Ukrainian counterattacks expose how much strained the Russian operation actually is

The momentum on the battlefield seems to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor, according to the article.

“The momentum on battlefield seems to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor”

Dagens

Recent Ukrainian battlefield actions are sending ripple effects across several parts of the frontline and are forcing Moscow to shift troops and rethink plans.

Dagens

The developments come as both sides prepare for a potentially decisive phase of fighting later in 2026.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian operations near Oleksandrivka, Hulyaipole and Zaporizhia are creating wider operational consequences for Russian forces.

The Washington-based think tank reports that Russia has already had to draw on parts of its operational reserve to sustain fighting in other sectors.

Dagens

ISW noted that such reinforcements likely include troops sent to the Kupyansk direction, where Ukrainian forces have recently carried out several successful counterattacks.

ISW reported on March 7 that Russian command redeployed elite airborne and naval infantry units away from Donetsk Oblast.

“The momentum on battlefield seems to be shifting in Ukraine’s favor”

Dagens

The think tank said these units were moved laterally to southern positions, likely to respond to Ukrainian advances near Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole.

ISW said such shifts highlight the limits of Russia’s available manpower and suggest commanders are being forced to redistribute forces to stabilize the front.

Analysts say the redeployment could complicate Moscow’s expected Spring–Summer 2026 offensive campaign and moving forces from Donetsk to Zaporizhia may weaken preparations for attacks aimed at Ukraine’s so-called Fortress Belt defensive lines.

ISW said the need to respond to relatively small Ukrainian counterattacks shows Russian forces remain stretched even as they prepare for a larger offensive push.

Dagens

The situation echoes earlier pressures in November 2025, when Ukrainian attacks near Dobropillya forced Russian units to divert resources and elements of the 51st Combined Arms Army operating toward Pokrovsk and Dobropillya were reportedly strained.

ISW said these recurring disruptions suggest Russia may struggle to sustain major offensive operations while managing tactical setbacks along the front.