Kyiv Warns Belarus Could Serve As Launchpad For More Kremlin Attacks From Belarusian Territory

Ukrainian officials are warning that Belarus could again serve as a launchpad for more attacks by the Kremlin’s forces, with Kyiv warning that Lukashenko could allow his land to be used for additional aggressive operations precisely from Belarusian territory.

The Associated Press says Belarus has not contributed troops to battle, but Lukashenko has backed President Vladimir Putin’s war effort by hosting Russia’s nuclear weapons and military infrastructure and producing components for Moscow’s military industries.

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When Putin began the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, Russian troops gathered in Belarus under the guise of drills dashed toward Kyiv about 90 kilometers (56 miles) south of the border, and Kyiv says it is now seeing renewed movement.

The AP also reports that Belarusian plants have produced components including microchips and other electronics, optical guidance systems, artillery munitions and heavy trucks that carry Russian ballistic missiles, and Ukraine’s presidential envoy on sanctions policy Vladyslav Vlasiuk said fragments of an Oreshnik ballistic missile fired at Ukraine on May 24 contained microchips from Belarus.

On Sunday, August 25, Kyiv accused Belarus of “massing” troops at its border, with the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry announcing it had detected that the country “masses a significant number of soldiers (...) in the Gomel region, near Ukraine's northern border, under the cover of military maneuvers.”

Kyiv urged Belarusian officials not to commit a “tragic mistake under Moscow's pressure” and called on its armed forces to cease hostile acts and withdraw forces from the border with Ukraine to a distance greater than the firing range of Belarusian systems.

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Le Monde.fr frames the dispute as a “game of deception between Ukraine and Belarus,” asking whether Belarusian troops are about to attack Ukraine or whether Kyiv is dealing with a “jeu de dupes.”

Le Monde.fr also says Kyiv claims to have detected the presence of Wagner militia fighters, with estimates that 100 to 200 men remained in Belarus after the failed rebellion by Yevgeny Prigozhin, who died in August 2023 in the crash of his plane.

The Associated Press reports that Belarus has hosted joint drills of nuclear forces involving Russian weapons deployed in Belarus earlier this month, and it says Russia announced in December that its latest intermediate range nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile system entered service in Belarus.

The AP adds that in 2024 the Kremlin revised its nuclear doctrine, placing Belarus under the Russian nuclear umbrella, and it reports that Putin said Moscow will retain control of its nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus but would allow its ally to select the targets in case of conflict.

The AP also quotes BELPOL head Uladzimir Zhyhar saying, “Lukashenko’s regime is quite seriously involved in the war,” and it adds that Zhyhar said “Lukashenko is helping Russia in every way he can.”

Zhyhar further warned that “Belarus lacks military sovereignty, and as soon as Moscow sees it as necessary for its strategy, Moscow will naturally use Belarus as a launchpad for a new invasion of Ukraine or some kind of armed conflict with NATO countries,” while the AP reports Ukraine has been forced to maintain many forces at the border with Belarus, keeping them from fighting Russian troops along the more than 1,000-kilometer (600-mile) front line.