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Deribit bets on $72,000
Large traders are betting that Bitcoin’s spot price will climb to $72,000 by month end, using Deribit-listed bitcoin call options that pay off beyond specific price levels by a certain date.
“Massive bitcoin call spreads target $72,000 by month end, right when the Fed meets Large traders are betting on a BTC price rise to $72,000 by the end of the month, latest options market flow suggests”
Futurop牛牛 and CoinDesk both tie the timing to the Federal Reserve’s July 29 interest rate decision, with the options targeting the July 31 settlement.
Deribit data cited in the coverage shows 20,000 contracts of the $70,000 call expiring July 31 were purchased alongside a sale of 20,000 contracts of the $72,000 call of the same expiry, totaling $2.5 billion in notional value.
That structure is described as a bull call spread, with the trade-off that it caps gains beyond $72,000 while lowering the entry cost and maximum loss if the market stays flat or falls.
CoinDesk quotes Deribit’s Jean-David Péquignot saying, "This week we have seen some large blocks in BTC topside call spreads."
Fed timing and probabilities
The options flow is framed as aligning with the Fed’s July 29 interest rate decision, with markets currently favoring a hold and the call spread flow pointing to the meeting as a catalyst for a move toward $72,000.
CoinDesk says fed funds futures currently point to a hold at the July meeting, with most trackers putting the probability of the central bank keeping its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in the 75%-80% range.
Cointribune adds that the July 31 expiry takes place just forty-eight hours after the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting scheduled for July 29.
Cointribune also states that Fed funds futures indicate an overwhelming 75% to 80% probability supporting the central bank’s maintenance of current interest rates at this July session.
Cointribune describes the strategy as buying the option at the lower strike of $70,000 and simultaneously selling the option at the higher strike of $72,000, with maximum profit strictly capped at that threshold.
Volatility mechanics around 70k
CryptoDaily explains that a call wall is a cluster of call options at the same or nearby strikes that becomes large enough to influence dealer hedging, and it describes 70k as a magnet where options flow stacks up.
“Everyone keeps staring at 70k”
The same article says a July update flagged roughly $458.5 million of aggregated call open interest stacked around 70k, making it the nearest high-visibility call wall on the board OIOption (Crypto Market Pressure and Liquidity Wall Update).
CryptoDaily links the behavior to gamma dynamics, saying recent research put the gamma flip zone right at 68k to 70k, with net dealer gamma negative by roughly 143,000 BTC at the time of analysis.
It adds that when net dealer gamma is negative, hedging becomes pro-cyclical, with dealer hedging flow pushing spot harder in the same direction if price races into 70k while dealers are short gamma.
CryptoDaily also describes the practical implication that a big call wall with negative gamma can create two-step moves, expecting a fast tag of 70k followed by either a violent rejection or an air pocket higher if the wall gets eaten.
