Opinion: From San Diego, Iran war looks like military success, political uncertainty

Following the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since 2003 — including two carrier strike groups, stealth fighters and supporting capabilities — President Trump announced two weeks ago that “major combat operations in Iran” had commenced, saying the purpose of the war is to defend the American people “by eliminating imminent threats from the Iranian regime.”

“Following the largest U”

Times of San Diego

He framed the Operation Epic Fury air campaign with five objectives: (1) destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and industry; (2) destroy the Iranian Navy; (3) prevent Iran’s proxies from destabilizing the region; (4) ensure Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon; and (5) regime change, with the final objective described as the most difficult to achieve and the one upon which everything rests.

Times of San Diego

Two weeks into the war the air campaign is succeeding on key battlefield measures even as Iran has launched missile and drone retaliatory strikes against its neighbors and U.S. military installations and the Straits of Hormuz have been closed.

The author reports that Iran’s missile capabilities are being eliminated, with the number of Iranian launches declining significantly; the Iranian navy has been seriously weakened with most of its ships now at the bottom of the Persian Gulf; and Israel successfully killed Iran’s brutal dictator Ayatollah Khamenei along with much of Iran’s military high command.

Times of San Diego

The author warns that relying on air power alone is a large risk that likely will not produce regime change in a country of 90 million people, noting that air power without ground forces has never produced regime change and that President Trump has not ruled out deploying ground forces.

“Following the largest U”

Times of San Diego

The president hopes Iranian citizens or elements within the IRGC or broader security organizations will turn on the regime, receive immunity, and negotiate an end to the conflict, but the author notes that Trump did not include the destruction of the IRGC or the complete destruction of Iran’s military among campaign objectives and has indicated he is willing to work with alternatives to the existing leadership provided he has a say in who those individuals might be.

The author argues the Iranian regime has proven highly resilient: it has selected a new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of the recently killed leader, who the author says is likely to be even more radical; it has mastered murderous repression, culminating in killing thousands during January’s protest; and it benefits many Iranians through a lucrative political and economic system tied to organizations like the IRGC.

To give dissidents a chance, the U.S. and Israel would have to systematically weaken the IRGC and the Basij, but the lack of a unified opposition comparable to Solidarity or the ANC makes successful uprising unlikely.

Times of San Diego

Ultimately, the author says short-term measures — destroying missile capabilities and weakening the navy — are achievable, but long-term political success depends on whether the existing brutal regime is replaced by leadership more friendly to the United States, Israel and its neighbors; if it is not, the regime will emerge stronger, whereas with sound policies and luck new leadership could repudiate the regime’s ideology and usher in a new era.