Polymarket Files With CFTC To List Sports Parlay Contracts, SEC Chair Paul Atkins Seeks Public Input

Prediction-market provider Polymarket filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to list parlay contracts for sports events in the United States, describing them as "combinatorial outcome contracts" that combine two or more underlying contracts.

“Any manipulation or use of confidential access will henceforth be severely sanctioned”

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The filing says, "Every outcome must be satisfied for the Contract to resolve to $1.00," and it adds that the contract resolves to $0.00 if any single leg is not satisfied.

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Polymarket said it intends to list the products "no earlier than May 21, 2026," and it also asked the CFTC to hold an exhibit confidential due to possible trade secrets or commercial information.

Separately, Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins said in a statement on Wednesday that the SEC is looking into what an exchange-traded fund (ETF) around prediction markets might look like, and he instructed the staff to seek input from the public on how the Commission should respond to recent market changes.

Polymarket also moved to strengthen security on its decentralized prediction market platform, stating it intends to tackle insider trading and market manipulation.

The platform’s revised rules explicitly forbid users to execute trades based on "Stolen confidential information," "Illegal tips provided by others," or "a position of authority or direct influence over the underlying event."

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Polymarket said that when it detects activity deemed "unusual or potentially doubtful," an investigation will be conducted, and depending on severity it may block the incriminated wallet address, notify competent authorities, or impose heavy fines.

In the same context, the article says a video editor working with MrBeast was suspended for two years and ordered to pay five times the initial value of his bet after an investigation established similar facts on another platform.

While Polymarket’s sports parlay filings and SEC ETF review proceed, TradingView reports that Polymarket bettors assign only a 27% chance for Bitcoin to reach $150,000 in 2026.

The same report says, "Polymarket data, a decentralized prediction platform, reveals a probability of only 27% that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026," and it adds that 61% think BTC could stay below the symbolic $100,000 level in 2026.

TradingView also ties the debate to institutional finance, noting that Bitcoin ETFs have been adopted by major financial players and quoting Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered that these instruments have made BTC more sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations such as interest rates or inflation.

In parallel, L'Echo frames the broader push into traditional finance by saying that "Several asset managers plan to launch ETFs allowing investors to bet on the results of US elections," seeking to ride the success of predictive markets.