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Deadlines Missed, Gains Shrink
Russia is aiming to capture the remaining 20 percent of Ukraine’s partially occupied eastern Donetsk region by the end of the year, but Kyiv says Moscow has failed to meet 14 previous deadlines.
“Russia’s armed forces are aiming to capture the remaining 20 percent of Ukraine’s partially occupied eastern Donetsk region by the end of the year, having – according to Kyiv – failed to meet 14 previous deadlines”
At Russia’s current rate of advance, President Vladimir Putin’s forces will need 5,150 days, or 14 years, to complete the task, on top of the 12 years Russian-aligned forces have already been fighting to seize Donetsk from Kyiv’s control.
The Institute for the Study of War says Russian territorial gains have collapsed this year even as casualties have risen, estimating that Russian forces seized 2,190 square kilometres (845 square miles) of Ukraine in the first six months of 2025 compared with 622 sq km (240 sq miles) so far this year.
The ISW says the rate of advance fell in June to 1.03 sq km (0.39 sq miles) a day versus 16.6 sq km (6.4 sq miles) a day in the first six months of 2025, and that if infiltrations are removed and Ukrainian counter-advances are included Russia’s net gain in the first half of 2026 is just 97 sq km (37 sq miles).
Zelenskyy attributed Ukraine’s success this year to “a series of decisions” made last year to increase drone production and develop domestic long-range missiles, and he said “Logistical Lockdown” as Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov described the strategy to disrupt supplies of fuel and ammunition to Russian frontlines.
Putin, Zelensky, and the Summit
Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said “If Putin wants to send another million of his soldiers to keep fighting against this wall,” then those “million Russians” should think about “what awaits them next,” as he pointed to 1.4 million Russian casualties since the war began.
Zelenskyy announced a 40-day campaign of mid and long-range strikes “against the aggressor state aimed at compelling it to end the war” starting on June 25, and the Institute for the Study of War assessed that attacks increased from 210 in May to 303 in June.
As Russia signals openness to US mediation, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Kremlin newswire TASS on June 26 that “US proposals were discussed and accepted by the Russian side in Alaska,” while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the same day, “We would welcome [US mediation].”
The Washington-based think tank’s figures on territorial control and advance rates feed into the diplomatic calendar, with Geopop saying the President of the United States Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will meet on Friday, August 15, at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage.
Geopop also notes that an international arrest warrant has been issued against Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court in 2023, and Le Parisien adds that the meeting is set at Elmendorf-Richardson military base “in an effort to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.”
Stakes: Frontlines, Fuel, and Negotiations
Ukraine’s strikes are described as reaching into Russian logistics and energy, with Al Jazeera saying that over two days, July 1-2, Ukraine destroyed 12 electricity substations in southern Crimea as part of a campaign to make the peninsula unusable for military operations.
“The President of the United States, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, will meet on Friday, August 15, at the Elmendorf-Richardson military base in Anchorage, the largest city in Alaska, to discuss the war in Ukraine and a possible ceasefire for the conflict that began in 2022”
Al Jazeera also says the commander of Ukraine’s Unmanned Systems Forces, Robert ‘Magyar’ Brovdi, wrote on his Telegram channel that “50,147 military targets were destroyed/damaged” in June, and Zelenskyy said short and mid-range capabilities will increase further this month as battalions “will receive additional resources.”
At the same time, Al Jazeera reports that Russia’s military estimated that Russia suffered another 39,490 casualties in June alone, far outstripping its estimated recruitment capacity this year of 24,000-30,000 a month.
The diplomatic stakes are framed around what a ceasefire would mean for territory, with Sud Ouest saying Moscow is demanding four partially occupied regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson) in addition to Crimea annexed in 2014.
Sud Ouest also says Donald Trump told Fox News Radio that “There is a 25% chance that this meeting will not be a success,” while Zelensky said the Alaska meeting was already a “victory” for the Russian leader.
