Q&A on US Actions in Venezuela

On sanctions and markets, Richard Nephew warns it is too soon to tell whether sanctions will be removed; most US sanctions derive from executive orders and could be reversed quickly if the United States effectively governs Venezuela, while European sanctions largely target specific officials or the arms trade.

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Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA

If the United States is not "running Venezuela," Nephew says, pressure could continue and could be enforced with demonstrated willingness to use force.

Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA

Daniel Sternoff argues that political turmoil could meaningfully disrupt production in the short term, but markets could manage Venezuelan losses given oversupplied conditions after OPEC+ production returned about 1.5 million b/d in 2025.

Redirecting Venezuelan crude toward the US Gulf Coast would benefit US refiners and tighten heavy-crude supply in Asia, with minimal effect on the flat price of crude.

A realistic medium-term recovery could keep downward pressure on the back end of the crude curve and potentially damp investment in higher-cost US shale.

Nephew concludes these developments reveal a Trump approach to economic statecraft that prioritizes securing natural resources and is likely to be perceived as more aggressive, avaricious, and nationalistic.