Sens. Merkley and Klobuchar Move to Ban President, VP and Congress From Prediction-Market Betting

Senators Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) and Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) have introduced legislation that would bar the president, vice president and members of Congress from trading “event contracts” — prediction‑market wagers on outcomes.

“Payouts to unnamed bettors after the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U”

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The bill would place restrictions on such trading by senior executive‑branch officials.

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The bill sets financial penalties for violations, with fines beginning at $10,000.

The proposal targets a growing prediction‑market industry exemplified by platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Supporters frame the bill as a preventative anti‑corruption and conflict‑of‑interest measure.

Merkley said proving traditional insider trading can be difficult and that the aim of the ban is to prevent both corruption and the appearance of conflict, emphasizing that rules should address not only illegal acts but also actions that erode public trust.

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The administration has noted that existing statutes already prohibit gambling on government property and insider trading, though it did not directly address the recent specific allegations tied to markets.

The move comes amid heightened scrutiny of prediction markets after a recent surge of wagers on Polymarket related to U.S.-Israel actions against Iran, which included high‑profile bets about the fate of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

“Payouts to unnamed bettors after the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U”

CNBC

That spike in activity brought attention from lawmakers and regulators and spurred concerns that individuals with privileged information could exploit these markets for profit or to influence policy perceptions.

CNBC says passage is unlikely in a Republican-controlled Congress, so the bill's near-term political prospects appear limited.

Sponsors and some observers say the legislation could shape future regulatory frameworks and oversight of prediction markets, potentially affecting how platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are governed or restricted.

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The controversy has prompted accusations from other lawmakers, including Sen. Chris Murphy, who suggested the spike in bets may reflect likely insider trading, intensifying calls for clearer rules.

“Payouts to unnamed bettors after the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and the U”

CNBC

While existing law addresses some aspects of gambling on government property and insider trading, sponsors of the bill are pushing for an explicit prohibition to close gaps and to signal a strong ethical standard for elected and senior officials.

CNBC