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SIPRI: arsenals expand
The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) said the world’s nine nuclear-armed states continued to modernize and expand their strategic arsenals in 2025, with the global nuclear stockpile standing at about 12,187 warheads as of January and roughly 9,745 ready for use.
“The world’s nine nuclear-armed states are upgrading and expanding their arsenals, accelerating an arms race that is creating “new risks” amid rising global tensions, a new report has warned”
SIPRI director Karim Haggag warned that “the level of nuclear dangers and nuclear risks are rising,” even as the total number of warheads remained near 12,187.
SIPRI also said the United States and Russia together control 83% of the world’s nuclear arsenal, while China is expanding its nuclear arsenal faster than any other country with its stockpile reaching about 620 warheads.
The report described how more than 4,000 warheads were already deployed on missiles and aircraft, and up to 2,200 were kept on high alert on U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles.
SIPRI linked the shift to the breakdown of arms control and the New START treaty expiring in February 2026, saying the decadeslong decline is likely to be decisively reversed in the coming years.
Voices on risk
SIPRI said the risk is rising as states take nuclear weapons “out of storage and deploying them on nuclear-capable delivery systems,” which it said increases the number of deployed nuclear weapons.
Karim Haggag told AFP that “the more worrying news is that even though we have lower numbers of nuclear weapons, the level of nuclear dangers and nuclear risks are rising,” framing the danger as outpacing the count.
Hans M. Kristensen, associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists, said, “By reaching for nuclear solutions, states are creating new risks and fuelling arms-race dynamics.”
SIPRI also warned that the absence of a successor agreement to the 2010 New START treaty in February adds uncertainty over future U.S. and Russian strategic nuclear force levels.
In SIPRI’s account, the combination of emerging technologies and geopolitical tensions is weakening nuclear arms control safeguards and increasing the chance of miscalculation.
What comes next
SIPRI said the trend of declining nuclear arms stockpiles is likely to be reversed as “the pace of dismantlement is slowing, while the deployment of new nuclear weapons is accelerating,” setting the stage for more warheads on missiles and aircraft.
“STOCKHOLM — The number of deployed nuclear warheads worldwide has increased over the past year, the Swedish think tankSIPRIfound in its annual report released today”
The report described Russia’s nuclear program as affected by Western sanctions and the cost of the war in Ukraine, contributing to failed tests of the Sarmat missile, while Russia’s Burevestnik cruise missile completed a range test of more than 14,000 kilometers.
SIPRI said Russia has begun building a base in Belarus for its Oreshnik missile, which it first used against Ukraine with a nonnuclear warhead in May 2026.
For the United States, SIPRI said modernization has been delayed by funding shortages and planning problems, compounded by Donald Trump’s $1.2 trillion Golden Dome missile defense initiative.
SIPRI warned that nuclear advocates in the United States are pushing for steps such as deploying more warheads on existing launchers, reactivating empty launchers, and adding new non-strategic nuclear weapons in response to China’s new nuclear deployments.
