Technology and Science26 June, 20262 min read
Strait Of Hormuz Reopens, Polymarket Cuts 2026 Fed Odds From 82.1% To 79.5%
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Strait of Hormuz reopening reduces oil-driven inflation risk. Polymarket odds of zero Fed rate cuts drop to 79.5%.
Fed odds shift on oil
Polymarket traders tracking “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” kept the dominant view at 79.5% for “0 Cuts,” even as the leading contract slipped from 82.1% to 79.5% after the Strait of Hormuz reopened.
The same Polymarket ladder showed “1 (25 bps)” at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No and “2 (50 bps)” at 4.05% Yes / 95.95% No, with the market resolving on Dec. 31, 2026 (UTC).
The article ties the oil-driven cooling of inflation risk to the reopening, while also flagging a new concern that AI investment could push up costs and raise the neutral rate.
TD Cowen estimated major hyperscalers would spend $745 billion this year, and projected spending by those firms could rise to about 3% of GDP next year from under 0.5% in 2020.
It adds that the demand for components and labor tied to AI infrastructure is beginning to show up in inflation data and construction-worker demand, with one economist quoted saying the initial AI buildout phase could be inflationary.
Asian rivals fill Mythos gap
As a U.S. export ban on Anthropic’s Mythos and Fable models entered its third week, Chinese cybersecurity firm 360 unveiled Tulongfeng and Yitianzhen, while Tokyo-based Sakana AI launched Fugu. TechCrunch and Bitcoin World both describe Fugu as a model that “stands shoulder-to-shoulder with leading models like Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos Preview,” and TechCrunch adds that it is designed for agents with the ability to orchestrate access to other models through their APIs. A Sakana AI spokesperson told Bitcoin World that the timing of Fugu’s release was “entirely coincidental,” while the company’s website advertises “delivering frontier capability without the risk of export controls.”
The U.S. order, issued two weeks ago, prevents Anthropic from providing global access to Mythos and Fable systems, and the ban blocks access by any foreign national, including non-U.S. employees. The dispute is framed as a growing regional push to fill gaps left by American export controls, with Sakana co-founder Ren Ito urging the U.S. to “preserve access” for its closest allies.
Security, revenue, and policy
The export restrictions also intersect with Anthropic’s business timeline, because Yellow says Mythos-class models were expected to support revenue before a possible IPO and help pay for compute commitments, including a reported SpaceX data center deal.
Yellow reports that the standoff began after the Trump administration ordered Anthropic to suspend access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for any foreign national, citing security concerns tied to the systems’ advanced capabilities.
In parallel, TechCrunch and Bitcoin World both cite 360’s founder Zhou Hongyi describing vulnerability-finding AI as a national strategic asset and flagging the risk of “one-way transparency,” where some actors can access advanced vulnerability-detection capabilities while others cannot.
Bitcoin World adds that Anthropic had a historic growth trajectory, with the U.S. AI lab reporting run-rate revenue of $47 billion in May 2026.
The article also quotes David Ha on X that “Access to top models can disappear overnight,” and that “Collective intelligence is the practical hedge against this concentration of power.”