The biggest Iran polling takeaway: Americans don’t see the point of this war

The war with Iran is now about two weeks old and polling presents a confusing picture that could break either for or against the Trump administration.

“The war with Iran is now about two weeks old”

CNN

A Washington Post poll released Thursday showed an about-even split on the “U.S. military campaign against Iran” — 42% in support, 40% opposed — after the Post’s poll last week showed Americans opposed Trump’s strikes against Iran 52%-39%.

CNN

A Fox News survey also showed an even 50%-50% split among registered voters.

But five of seven high-quality pollsters show Americans oppose the war by double digits, including a CNN poll last week, and two polls conducted in the same period as the Post’s newer poll (Quinnipiac and Reuters-Ipsos) showed stronger opposition: Quinnipiac found 53% of registered voters opposed and 40% in support, and Reuters-Ipsos found 43% of Americans disapprove and 29% approve.

Beneath headline numbers, multiple polls report Americans think the war makes the United States less safe or will harm national security over the long run.

The Fox poll found registered voters said Trump’s “handling of relations with Iran” made the US less safe by a 51%-29% margin, with 19% saying it made no difference.

CNN

The Reuters poll showed Americans thought the war would harm US national security over the long run, 42%-29%, and the Quinnipiac poll showed registered voters said it would make the US “less safe,” 47%-34%.

A CNN poll showed Americans said the war would make Iran more of a threat to the US, 54%-28%, and the new Washington Post poll showed Americans said 53%-46% that the war “will not contribute to the long-term security of the United States.”

Americans distinguish between a long-standing threat and an imminent one: many acknowledge Iran as a national security concern but do not see an immediate military threat that justified war right now.

“The war with Iran is now about two weeks old”

CNN

The Fox poll showed registered voters agreed 61%-38% that Iran posed a “real national security threat” to the US, while the Quinnipiac poll showed Americans said 55%-39% that Iran did not pose an “imminent military threat to the United States.”

Even within the Republican base, support appears soft: across five polls asking a version of the security question, an average of 19% of Republicans said the war would make the US less safe compared to 66% who said it would make the US more safe.

Public attention to the conflict remains limited, which creates potential volatility in opinion as events unfold.

The Reuters poll found 51% of Americans said they had heard “a lot” about the strikes against Iran, while almost half said they had heard “a little” or less.

CNN

A majority of Americans said they personally cared “some” or less about what’s going on in Iran, with 28% saying they cared “quite a bit” and 17% saying they cared “a great deal.”

The article concludes that opinion could shift depending on how long the war lasts and what it costs the United States, and that Americans are not starting out optimistic about the war’s wisdom.