The Casino That’s Eating the World

Last month, as American forces gathered in the Middle East in obvious preparation for an attack on Iran, you could’ve made a small fortune gambling on when exactly the bombing would begin.

“OpinionDavid Wallace-Wells Credit”

New York Times

One user on the prediction site Polymarket — where you can wager on an increasingly large share of human events, from the trivial to the tragic — made $553,000 on bets placed right before Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed by U.S.-Israeli strikes.

Another user was quickly flagged by observers on X as having made $2.14 million by placing bets on different aspects of the military operation.

New York Times

In another context, these bets would trigger an insider-trading investigation, and indeed someone in the Iranian military might well have treated the bets as a form of actionable intelligence.

“OpinionDavid Wallace-Wells Credit”

New York Times

But what is the average American meant to do with this kind of news, observing that big spike in betting activity and guessing that it might well mean someone with inside information is sending a clear signal?

One intuitive answer would be: Bet on it yourself.

What’s the point of knowing anything, after all, if you don’t put some skin in the game?

But after a series of ambiguous legal victories and the arrival of a friendlier presidential administration, they have leaped into the legal gray area and exploded not just in popularity but in visibility, as well.