Trump Administration Starts Decade-Long Countdown To Exit USMCA, Launching Review Before July 1, 2036

The Trump administration is expected to formally announce on Wednesday that it will not extend the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement on trade, starting a decade-long clock to wind down the 32-year-old North American free trade zone as the three countries negotiate potential changes.

That declaration is set to kick off a six-year review session, part of a “sunset clause” negotiated by President Donald Trump’s first administration, with trade chiefs from the U.S., Mexico and Canada expected to meet virtually on Wednesday to declare whether they want to extend the pact for another 16 years.

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The process is tied to an automatic expiration date of July 1, 2036 unless the three countries agree to renew it for an additional 16 years, and the review and sunset mechanism is described as separate from a termination clause that could trigger a U.S. withdrawal within six months.

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has already scheduled a third round of negotiations with Mexico for the week of July 20, signaling his intent to keep pushing for changes as the review begins.

The negotiations are described as continuing with Mexico without Canada, with Greer holding discussions with his Canadian counterpart, Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc, while no schedule is planned to launch formal negotiations with Canada.

For Mexico, Greer’s team has demanded that all North American-built vehicles contain 50% U.S.-specific content, a figure that would drive regional required content up to 82% to qualify for U.S. benefits, while vehicles assembled in Mexico and Canada would still likely be charged some level of tariffs.

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A Mexican official said the U.S. and Mexico have discussed a universal global tariff of 15% on autos, but a lower rate for vehicles from Mexico and Canada if they agree on stricter rules of origin.

Greta Peisch, a former USTR general counsel now at Wiley Rein in Washington, said, "We expect July 1st to come and go, and for the United States to not confirm its wish to extend," and added it was unclear whether the U.S. says what it is looking for "in a public way" in a statement expected after the meeting.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded to the news on Tuesday by saying she had signed a letter calling for the trade agreement to be extended for 16 years.

The Reuters account says the U.S. demands include sweeping demands to boost U.S. and regional content in North American automotive production and trade protections to block Chinese goods from benefiting from USMCA, while the review and sunset process would keep the pact in an indefinite limbo if revisions are not agreed.

In a separate framing, El Orden Mundial describes how Trump, as a candidate, called NAFTA "el peor acuerdo de libre comercio jamás firmado" and said he would promote its renegotiation, and it later says only four months after arriving in the White House Trump announced he would renegotiate the TLCAN.

As the review period unfolds, the U.S. is also described as seeking a tougher posture toward the USMCA, with Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick stating that, in the president's view, the USMCA is 'a bad deal' and that 'It needs to be reconsidered and reimagined correctly.'