United Arab Emirates Quits OPEC On May 1, Seeking More Production Capacity

The United Arab Emirates announced it would leave OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, on May 1, a move framed by the UAE as a shift toward “national interests” and an effort to increase production capacity.

“According to Reuters, CNBC and The Edge Malaysia, even if the UAE exits OPEC on May 1, other members are likely to keep coordinating supply for now”

aju press

In an interview on Democracy Now!, Bloomberg senior climate reporter Akshat Rathi said, “The fact that the UAE has pulled out means that this cartel will have less ability to be able to push up the price when it wants,” adding that “we’ve already seen some of it not working” because “there are all these other producers, like the U.S.A., but also places like Guyana, that are increasing their production a lot.”

aju press

Al Jazeera described the decision as coming “after decades of membership” and said the UAE quit “to focus on ‘national interests’ and forge its own path.”

CNN reported that the UAE plans to withdraw from OPEC on Friday, citing WAM, and said the decision also extends to OPEC+.

The BBC’s Faisal Islam called the exit “a very big deal,” arguing that the UAE wanted to use the “considerable capacity it has invested in” and that OPEC quotas limited it to “3-3.5 million barrels per day.”

DW, meanwhile, reported that the UAE will leave both OPEC and the wider OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, on May 1, and quoted Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei telling the New York Times, “The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups.”

Multiple outlets tied the UAE’s decision to its long-running disputes over production quotas and its investments to expand capacity, while also emphasizing that the timing is shaped by the Iran war and the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Al Jazeera said the UAE’s decision came “after years of open dissatisfaction with the oil cartel’s policy of capping members’ production as a way to control prices and stabilise the market,” and it reported that the UAE had invested billions to raise capacity “from 3 to 5 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027.”

Al Jazeera

It also said that before the war the UAE’s production capacity had grown to “4.8 million bpd,” but under its OPEC agreement it was only allowed to produce “3.2 million bpd.”

DW described the UAE as clashing with Saudi Arabia over quotas and said the UAE “currently produces roughly 3.2 to 3.6 million barrels per day (bpd) under quotas but holds spare capacity of nearly 4.8 million bpd,” adding that plans call for a hike toward “5 million bpd by next year.”

In London, Democracy Now! featured Ursula von der Leyen warning the energy crisis could last for years, while Akshat Rathi said the world was living through “the biggest energy shock that the world has experienced,” describing it as “bigger than the 1970s dual oil shocks.”

The Express Tribune’s Carole Nakhle argued the immediate market impact would be limited because “the near term” is dominated by “the war involving Iran and associated supply risks,” and she said the decision had been “building for some time” due to “output constraints” and “uneven compliance.”

CNN similarly reported that oil prices were unchanged by the news, with Brent crude up “2.6% to $111 a barrel at 11.30 a.m. ET,” and said the implications would likely be limited “given that the Strait of Hormuz still remains largely shut.”

The sources present competing explanations for why the UAE left, with officials and analysts emphasizing different drivers—national interest, quota frustration, and the strategic moment created by the Iran war.

“Faisal Islam: Why the UAE's exit from Opec is a big deal It is a very big deal that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has announced its abrupt exit from Opec, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries”

BBC

DW quoted Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei saying, “The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups,” while Al Jazeera said the UAE quit “to focus on ‘national interests’ and forge its own path.”

On the market side, Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told CNN that the UAE’s move “marks a significant shift for the oil-producer group,” writing that the UAE is “one of the few members with meaningful spare (production) capacity.”

The BBC’s Faisal Islam argued the UAE wanted to use its capacity because “Opec quotas limited its production to 3-3.5 million barrels per day,” and he warned that Saudi Arabia’s response could matter for other members’ ability to withstand a potential “oil price war.”

The Express Tribune included Carole Nakhle, CEO of Crystol Energy, who said the decision had been “building for some time,” driven by “Abu Dhabi’s discomfort with output constraints and uneven compliance among members of the producer group.”

In a different framing, the Aju Press report said Reuters, CNBC and The Edge Malaysia expected coordination to continue, citing OPEC+ sources that “producers are expected to continue aligning supply policy,” and it quoted Gary Ross saying, “In the end, Saudi Arabia was effectively OPEC.”

CNBC added a “flight risks” framing, with Andy Lipow saying, “If countries that are abiding by their quota get disgusted with those that don't, we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel,” and it also quoted Matt Smith on Kazakhstan as a candidate, saying, “Kazakhstan has been vastly over producing last year, and so they may be seeing this as a potential out for them to leave the group as well.”

While most outlets agreed the UAE’s exit is significant, they diverged on how much it changes the market immediately and how much it threatens OPEC’s long-term cohesion.

Democracy Now! emphasized the cartel’s reduced ability to push prices, with Akshat Rathi saying, “The fact that the UAE has pulled out means that this cartel will have less ability to be able to push up the price when it wants,” and it linked the energy shock to potential acceleration of clean energy, with Rathi arguing countries can “try and deploy as much renewables so that they can build energy supply at home.”

CNBC

The Express Tribune and Aju Press both leaned toward limited near-term effects, with the Express Tribune saying the immediate impact is likely to be limited because “the near term” remains driven by “the war involving Iran and associated supply risks,” and Aju Press citing Reuters and OPEC+ sources that producers are expected to “continue aligning supply policy.”

DW and CNN, by contrast, stressed the UAE’s spare capacity and the implications for Saudi Arabia’s role, with DW saying the exit removes “one of the few OPEC members with meaningful spare oil capacity,” and CNN quoting Jorge Leon that the UAE is “one of the few members with meaningful spare (production) capacity.”

The Guardian framed the move as “a political as much as business decision,” saying it “will reignite the simmering rows between the UAE and Saudi Arabia,” and it described the GCC emergency session in Jeddah as the context for the announcement.

CNBC focused on the possibility of “additional exits,” quoting Andy Lipow that “we could see additional exits that could eventually make OPEC irrelevant as a cartel,” and it also discussed “flight risk” candidates like Kazakhstan.

The BBC’s Faisal Islam offered a different nuance, arguing the UAE’s action is “precisely this” capacity that led to “long-term reconsiderations,” and he warned that “Much depends on the Saudi response.”

The sources converge on one central consequence: the UAE’s exit reduces OPEC’s spare-capacity leverage at a time when the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, and that shifts pressure onto Saudi Arabia and the group’s ability to coordinate.

“The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC, a decades-old cartel of the world’s top oil exporters, delivering a shock that will ripple through global oil markets at a time of unprecedented turmoil caused by the Iran war”

CNN

Al Jazeera said the UAE’s departure is “unlikely to have an immediate impact on the market” because exports are constrained by Iran’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, while it also described a potential future scenario if navigation resumes, saying the UAE could “flood the market with its 1.6 million bpd of extra production” equivalent to “about 1.5 percent of global oil supply.”

CNN

DW argued the exit weakens Saudi Arabia’s leadership by making it harder to stabilize prices, stating that with the UAE gone, Saudi Arabia “will have to rely much more on its own oil production cuts to stabilize prices,” which would make defending oil prices “more expensive and less effective for Riyadh.”

CNN similarly said the UAE’s additional supply would likely be limited short-term but could matter if the strait reopens, citing David Oxley that the UAE is “well placed to increase supplies and live with lower oil prices… given its relatively diversified economy and lower reliance on oil revenues.”

The BBC’s Faisal Islam warned that when tankers flow again, Emirati oil could flow “like never before,” unconstrained by OPEC commitments, and he suggested the exit could spark “further dominoes” that increase pressure on Saudi Arabia.

In the longer run, the Express Tribune’s Li-Chen Sim said the move is more likely to matter “over the longer term rather than immediately,” and she tied it to the UAE’s ability to raise production and exports, while also noting the need to repair damage and the time required to increase output.

CNBC’s Bob McNally said any erosion in OPEC+ discipline would likely “increase the volatility of oil prices,” and it also reported that OPEC+ producers agreed on April 5 to begin easing voluntary output cuts, returning “about 206,000 barrels per day” in May from a broader reduction.

Even as some outlets stressed coordination continuity, the Aju Press report said the “bigger question is what happens after the war,” and it warned that if other producers prioritize market share over quotas, “OPEC’s ability to coordinate supply could weaken,” increasing the risk of lower prices.