US Intelligence Says Mojtaba Khamenei Shapes Iran’s War Strategy and US Negotiations

US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, while precise authority within a now-fractured regime remains unclear.

“Evidence converges, two weeks into the US-Israel war on Iran, that the war has failed to achieve its objectives, the primary ones in full and the lesser ones relatively”

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

The reports say Khamenei is likely helping direct how Iran is managing negotiations with the US to end the war, even as he has not been seen in public since he sustained serious injuries during an attack that killed his father and several of the country’s top military leaders at the beginning of the war.

Al Jazeera Centre for Studies

CNN reports that Khamenei was announced as Iran’s new supreme leader replacing his father days after the strike that injured him, but the US intelligence community has not been able to visually confirm his whereabouts.

CNN also says part of the uncertainty stems from Khamenei not using any electronics to communicate, instead only interacting with those who can visit him in-person or by sending messages via a courier.

CNN adds that Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, told Iranian state media that he had held a two-and-a-half-hour meeting with Khamenei, marking the first reported in-person meeting between a top Iranian official and the country’s new supreme leader.

CNN reports that while US intelligence assessments indicate Khamenei is involved in helping develop Iran’s negotiating strategy, one source familiar with the latest information told CNN there is evidence he is fairly removed from the decision-making process and only sporadically accessible.

As a result, CNN says senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials are essentially running the day-to-day operations along with Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

CNN

CNN also quotes a senior intelligence official responding to the CIA assessment, saying, “The President’s blockade is inflicting real, compounding damage—severing trade, crushing revenue, and accelerating systemic economic collapse.”

In a separate statement, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly told CNN that “It’s clearer than ever that President Trump holds all the cards as his national security team works to end Iran’s nuclear dreams for good.”

CNN further says the Office of the Director of National Intelligence directed questions to the White House, while US and Iranian military forces have traded shots in recent days despite an ongoing ceasefire as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a near stop.

US intelligence reports cited by CNN say the war has degraded Iran’s military capabilities, but not destroyed them, and CNN previously reported that roughly half of Iran’s missile launchers had survived US strikes.

“US intelligence assesses that Iran’s new supreme leader is playing a critical role in shaping war strategy alongside senior Iranian officials, according to multiple sources familiar with the intelligence”

CNN

CNN says a recent report increased that figure to two thirds, partially due to the ongoing ceasefire providing Iran with time to dig out launchers that might have been buried in previous strikes.

CNN also reports that a separate CIA report found Iran can likely last up to four more months of the ongoing American blockade without complete destabilization of its economy.

In Al Jazeera Centre for Studies’ account of the war’s trajectory, it says “Iran’s resolve, together with some of its allies, to respond—whether by bombarding Israel or targeting American presence and energy sources” shows no sign of retreat.

The same Al Jazeera Centre for Studies text says that on Thursday, March 12, the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, delivered a written address in which he said, “all available resources must be utilized to ensure the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz.”