US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket opened a market titled "US x Iran ceasefire by...?" on Feb 28, 2026, 8:53 AM ET with a total reported volume of $18,103,821.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket

The market sets a strict definition of “official ceasefire agreement”: it requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, the market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire officially takes effect after the resolution date.

Polymarket

The market explicitly excludes informal understandings, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pauses from qualifying.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement that is effective on a specified date, or if it is otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

The market states that humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward resolution.

The listing shows date-linked values and volumes: March 15 6% with $6,291,677 volume, March 31 32% with $5,258,367 volume, April 30 53% with $1,774,124 volume, May 31 65% with $649,780 volume, and June 30 70% with $635,914 volume, alongside the repeated overall volume figure $18,103,821.

The article repeats the market rules and resolution criteria multiple times; it is unclear whether the repetition indicates any different conditions or is editorial duplication rather than new information.

Polymarket

Resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran, though the market also allows that a wide consensus of credible media reporting confirming an official ceasefire agreement will suffice.