MoU reached. Peace? Not sure

TEHRAN - Iran and the United States have agreed on a memorandum of understanding after Washington made further concessions following Israel’s attacks on Sunday in the Lebanese capital, which could have derailed diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington. Israel renewed deadly bombing of the Dahiyeh district in Beirut in violation of a ceasefire that paused the joint US-Israeli war on Iran that initially began on February 28. According to Pakistan, which helped mediate the April 8 truce between Tehran and Washington, the agreement included a halt to Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Following the bombing of Beirut’s Shia-populated area, Iran threatened to carry out retaliatory strikes against Israel. Trump’s concessions shift equation According to a report by Fars News Agency, Iran’s last-minute changes altered the outcome. Citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, the report said Iran’s Supreme National Security Council approved the general framework of the memorandum of understanding on Saturday. The source said, however, Israeli attacks in the Dahiyeh area, which crossed Iran’s red lines, changed the situation. Fars News added that Iran was preparing for large-scale attacks against Israel from multiple fronts, and that the negotiations were moving toward suspension. However, President Donald Trump offered concessions in exchange for Iran refraining from attacking Israel, which convinced the negotiating team that the agreement would serve both Iran’s national interests and those of the Lebanese people. According to the report, the concessions included the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade—replacing a previously agreed 30-day timetable—an end to war and military operations across all fronts in Lebanon, and respect for the country’s territorial integrity, which removed the remaining obstacles to signing the MoU. In this context, ten questions should be addressed. 1- How has Iran reacted to the MoU? Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, which has been tasked with coordinating military operations between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Army during wartime, issued a statement after the MoU was announced. In a statement, it hailed the resilience of Iranian people and the courage of the armed forces. It said Iranian forces “proved with strength that the humiliated American and Zionist enemies have no choice but to accept defeat and surrender.” Iran's Army Commander Major General Amir Hatami also said on Monday Israel and the US have realized they must respect the Iranian nation, their beliefs and the Islamic establishment after suffering defeats on the battlefield. President Masoud Pezeshkian said Iran has scored a diplomatic victory over the US. “The diplomatic achievement is another source of pride for the Iranian nation, accomplished through steadfastness and resistance against excessive demands (of the US),” Pezeshkian said on Monday. He added that “the concern and anger of the Israeli regime over this process is also a clear sign of the success and victory of the Iranian nation.” Pezeshkian said if the US fulfills its commitments, many regional problems will be resolved and a new situation on the international stage will be created. 2- How has the United States reacted to the MoU? The US president acknowledged that the naval blockade on Iran, which the US military imposed in mid-April, would be lifted soon upon the signing of the MoU in Switzerland on Friday. “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. “Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” Iranian media, however, say the MoU emphasizes the issue of Iranian and Omani sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, and that Iran will receive payments for “maritime services” in the future. 3- How has Israel acted? Israel has been blamed for sabotaging any deals between the US and Iran. Although the deal calls for stopping the Israeli war in Lebanon, Israeli officials have adopted a defiant tone. Defense Minister Israel Katz said Israel will not withdraw from territory it has seized in Lebanon, and if Iran attacks it over events in Lebanon, Israel will retaliate. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said the US-Iran agreement “is bad for Israel and for the entire free world.” Smotrich promised to keep targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon despite US pressure to halt attacks. “This is our war, our fighters, and the immediate security of our northern residents. I will continue to work to ensure we stand firm and allow the [military] full freedom of action to continue pushing Hezbollah back.” Lebanon was drawn into the US-Israel war on Iran when fighting broke out between Israel and Hezbollah on March 2. An April ceasefire in Lebanon has never been observed due to Israel’s repeated violation. Since early April, Israel has killed thousands of people in Lebanon. Israel has also expanded its occupation in Lebanon despite a November 2024 ceasefire with Lebanon. Israel’s presence in Lebanon is in line with the vision of “Greater Israel”. Based on this vision, Israel seeks to expand control and influence beyond its current borders into neighboring Arab and regional countries. Trump has openly expressed dissatisfaction over Israel’s continued attacks in Lebanon and blasted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. But many experts believe reports of confrontations between Trump and Netanyahu are just theatrical shows because Israel does not take military action against Lebanon without US green light. 4- What will happen after signing of the MoU? The MoU is expected to pave the way for talks in a period of 60 days to bring a permanent end to the US-Israeli aggression. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said the formal signing ceremony of the Iran-US MoU will be hosted by his country in Geneva on June 19. The text of the MoU is based on Iran's 14-point proposal from the very beginning of the April 8 ceasefire. Although the details of the MoU have not been published, the withdrawal of US forces from the vicinity of Iran, the lifting of sanctions on Iran, compensations for the damage inflicted by the US-Israeli war, and the future management of the Strait of Hormuz will be discussed in upcoming talks. 5- Will this MoU guarantee the end of war and hostilities? On paper, the newly announced MoU offers a comprehensive blueprint for peace, but in practice, it cannot guarantee an end to hostilities due to deep-seated Iranian distrust rooted in a consistent pattern of American betrayal. This skepticism is driven by recent history, most notably the US-Israeli strikes of June 2025 and the flagrant treachery of February 28, 2026, when Washington and Tel Aviv launched a massive joint military assault against Iran while high-stakes diplomatic talks were actively underway. Coming on top of the systemic failure of the 2015 JCPOA—where the US unilaterally walked away from a binding international treaty despite Iran’s full compliance—Tehran views this non-binding framework with extreme caution. True regional stability cannot be achieved by symbolic signatures in Geneva while Washington continues to fund and shield ongoing Israeli aggression, but only when the United States demonstrates a permanent, verified end to both its military operations and its economic warfare. 6- How will the fate of the Strait of Hormuz be determined? The fate of the Strait of Hormuz rests solely with the sovereign territorial states of Iran and Oman, whose overlapping territorial seas encompass the entirety of the waterway, leaving no room for international waters or foreign dictate. Iran and Oman bear the exclusive legal right to manage and secure this vital chokepoint, including the right to collect maritime service fees from transiting vessels to compensate for search-and-rescue, environmental protection, and navigational infrastructure services. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday that “fees” may be charged for ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz. “The Strait of Hormuz is very important for us, and we have adopted certain procedures according to international law in order to protect Iran’s national security,” he said. “It’s full services that will be offered… Accordingly, the fees will be there and this is clear.” 7- What will happen to Iran's 60% uranium and enrichment? Regarding the fate of the nuclear program, the newly reached MoU represents a significant retreat from Washington’s "zero enrichment" policy and a firm defense of Tehran's nuclear sovereignty. While Donald Trump previously insisted that Iran must completely forfeit its right to nuclear technology, Iran has successfully maintained its red lines, proving that it will never forego its inalienable right to domestic enrichment under international law. Under this framework, while Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium may be diluted to lower civilian-grade levels inside the country to foster goodwill, the material itself will never be transferred out of Iranian territory, and the nation's core enrichment infrastructure remains entirely intact on sovereign soil. 8- Will the conflict in Lebanon also end? According to the newly finalized 14-point framework mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, Lebanon is explicitly included in the deal, with both sides declaring an immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts. However, from Tehran's strategic perspective, while the text provides guarantees on paper, the actual cessation of hostilities depends entirely on Washington's willingness to rein in Tel Aviv. Following continued Israeli airstrikes on Beirut even after the announcement, Iranian officials have made it clear that the ball is now in the US court. Baghaei stressed on Monday that Lebanon is a critical part of the MoU and will be closely watched. 9- What if a final agreement is not reached after the 60-day negotiation window? While the Islamic Republic has consistently demonstrated that diplomatic channels remain open, Iranian officials have made it clear that any future engagement must be based on mutual respect and recognition of Iran’s sovereignty. Tehran views the 60-day window as a test of American compliance. If violations occur, the response will be immediate. Iran’s armed forces remain in full readiness to respond to renewed aggression. 10- Which countries and individuals played a role in reaching this understanding? The MoU was achieved through mediation led by Pakistan and Qatar, with support from Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hosted the process, while Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir played a key role in coordination. Qatar’s Minister of State Mohammad bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi was also involved. On the Iranian side, Parliament Speaker Mouhammad Bagher Qalibaf has been the country’s top negotiator. From the US side, Vice President J.D. Vance handled coordination ahead of the Geneva signing ceremony on Friday. Global reactions to Iran-US MoU The announcement of the MoU has triggered a wave of international reactions, highlighting the agreement’s far-reaching implications for regional stability, energy markets, and the security of one of the world’s most vital maritime trade corridors. Lebanese parliament speaker thanks Iran The speaker of Lebanon’s House of Representatives praised the MoU. In a statement, Nabih Berri “extended his thanks and appreciation to the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States of America and their leadership for their adherence and insistence on including in the agreed-upon memorandum a fundamental and binding provision to halt the Israeli aggression across Lebanon.” He said he hoped this would preserve Lebanon’s “sovereignty over its entire territory … and avoid falling into the trap set by the Israeli political echelon under Netanyahu’s leadership.” Berri also commended the contributions of Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt in reaching the agreement, which, he said, “establishes the foundations of security and stability in the region, including Lebanon.” President Joseph Aoun also issued a statement. “I appreciate what this memorandum contains in terms of respect for Lebanese specificity and the recognition that Lebanon’s stability and security constitute an integral part of any serious endeavor to consolidate stability in the region,” he said in a statement shared by the Lebanese presidency. Aoun hoped this agreement leads to “stability in the region, preserves the sovereignty of states and the rights of their peoples, and allows the Lebanese to focus on rebuilding what has been destroyed and restoring their normal lives under a secure and stable state.” Prime Minister