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AfD’s Saxony-Anhalt push
Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is poised to win power in Saxony-Anhalt’s state election on Sept. 6, with polls giving AfD 41% of the votes and the CDU 23% in one ZDF-referenced survey described by El País.
“AfD would obtain 41% of the votes in the Sunday elections in the state of Saxony-Anhalt.”
El País said that if AfD falls short of an absolute majority, “only an agreement among the other forces could prevent it from forming a government,” while Reuters reported that a victory for the far-right AfD in next week’s regional election in Saxony-Anhalt would “damage the eastern state and deter foreign companies from investing there.”
Reuters said German Chancellor Friedrich Merz told ARD public television that he could not imagine “international investors attending a ground-breaking ceremony with an AfD Minister-President,” framing the election as a test for Saxony-Anhalt’s economic future.
The Reuters account also tied the outcome to whether smaller parties clear the 5% entry threshold needed to get into parliament, noting that all the main parties have said they will not enter a coalition with the AfD.
In the same Reuters report, the question of who becomes state premier was linked to whether enough of the other parties opposed to the far-right gain enough votes to enter parliament, with surveys indicating the FDP is likely to miss out.
Power struggle and the firewall
The New York Times reported that state and federal leaders are trying to avoid sharing sensitive intelligence with the AfD should it take power, describing efforts to “throttle the routine sharing of certain classified information with state-level intelligence services.”
In the same account, the New York Times said the planning is driven partly by fear that AfD officials could pass national secrets to Russia, “to which the party maintains close ties,” and it framed the stakes as protection of German democracy and national security.
Reuters said Merz has repeatedly ruled out cooperation with both the AfD and the far-left Left party, and he declined to say what the CDU would do if the AfD fell short of an absolute majority.
Reuters also described how the result could hinge on coalition arithmetic, including the possibility of a minority government led by CDU State Premier Sven Schulze that would depend on passive tolerance from the Left Party.
El País added that AfD has two options to form a government—if it achieves an absolute majority of deputies or if the nationalist and populist left, BSW, enters parliament—while noting that BSW would skim the 5% threshold required to enter Parliament.
Who’s affected beyond Germany
The Kyiv Independent said a potential AfD victory in Saxony-Anhalt’s election on Sept. 6 would send a “chilling signal to the federal state's 39,000 Ukrainians,” and it described the AfD branch as classified by the German security service as “confirmed far-right extremist.”
“send a chilling signal to the federal state's 39,000 Ukrainians”
It reported that the AfD platform includes pledges to cut support for Ukrainian refugees and to abolish their status of “war refugees,” while calling for “remigration,” and it said Saxony-Anhalt’s 39,000 Ukrainians include 31,000 living there as refugees.
The Kyiv Independent also said that winning the state election would, for the first time, secure the AfD a place in the Bundesrat, which it described as a legislative body that represents Germany’s 16 federal states.
In parallel, the Guardian described the stakes for people with migrant backgrounds in Saxony-Anhalt, quoting Undra Dreßler of Lamsa saying, “People are really worried and scared,” and it added that for those with migrant backgrounds, “it feels like this vote is about their right to exist and their security.”
The Guardian further quoted Dreßler warning that “We don’t know what will happen after the elections,” as it described calls in June for Germany’s 15 other states to prepare to take in refugees from Saxony-Anhalt after the election.