Are Washington and Israel facing strategic surprises in the Strait of Hormuz?

Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said that the ongoing war between Israel and Iran has entered a new phase after moving from the joint Israeli-American attack to an Iranian response that came contrary to the expectations of the U.S. administration, returning Tehran to a position of strategic initiative.

“Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said that the ongoing war between Israel and Iran has entered a new phase after moving from the joint Israeli-American attack to an Iranian response that came contrary to the expectations of the U”

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In an interview with Al Jazeera, Sayigh said that the first Israeli-American attack demonstrated a high level of coordination in the air force and intelligence, but the Iranian response, which included the launch of missiles and drones, showed Tehran's capacity to persist in fighting and to continue applying pressure, including targeting neighboring states and tightening the Strait of Hormuz, which could force Washington to rethink the duration of the military campaign.

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Sayigh pointed out that the war has immediate implications for the global economy, as it threatens movement of around 20% of oil and liquefied natural gas shipped from the Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz, raising energy prices and affecting the agriculture and industrial sectors, including artificial intelligence and semiconductor industries.

He added that these factors enable Iran to benefit from international pressure on the United States, in addition to the possibility of increasing domestic opposition to the war inside America.

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The researcher explained that prolonging the war could serve Iranian interests, while existential questions are raised for Gulf states about their ability to deal with Iran after the war, and whether they will return to a policy of neutrality or adopt a permanent deterrence strategy against any future Israeli or American attack.

“Yezid Sayigh, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, said that the ongoing war between Israel and Iran has entered a new phase after moving from the joint Israeli-American attack to an Iranian response that came contrary to the expectations of the U”

Al-Jazeera Net

Divergence of objectives between Israel and the United States.

Sayigh noted that there is divergence between Israel's goals and those of the U.S. administration, stressing that Israel today seeks absolute military dominance in the region, including Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Palestine, reaching the Gulf, while Washington's calculations may differ, especially amid domestic pressures on U.S. President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.

Sayigh added that continued war is partly linked to the rift between the American and Israeli positions, noting that the decision to end the war may be influenced by how far Trump goes to take a firm stance to end the political and economic losses for the United States and to force Israel to curb its military actions.

Sayigh stressed that the current war has exposed the fragility of the American administration's expectations and demonstrated Iran's ability to carry out its old threats, including striking oil facilities and targeting shipping routes, which underscores the importance of the United States reevaluating its strategy in the region, in addition to direct implications for energy, agriculture, and industry markets worldwide.

On March 2 of the current year, Iran announced restricting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and threatened to attack any ships attempting to pass through this strategic passage without coordinating with it, in response to the American-Israeli aggression against it.

About 20 million barrels of oil pass through the strait daily, and closing it would raise shipping and insurance costs and push oil prices higher, prompting fears of global economic repercussions.

Al-Jazeera Net