Bitcoin Could Crash To $48,000 If Fibonacci Pattern Retracement Gets Triggered

Bitcoin could crash to $48,000 if a historical Fibonacci pattern—where every bitcoin bear market has retraced more than 61.8% of the move from near zero in early 2010—gets triggered in the current cycle.

Cryptonews.net and @coindesk both point to bitcoin’s latest peak above $126,000 earlier this year, saying the 61.8% retracement sits around $48,215 and would imply prices could fall sharply from current levels near $64,000.

@coindesk

The pattern described by Cryptonews.net and @coindesk traces bitcoin’s move from near zero—BTC began trading at $0.003 in February 2010—to bull market peaks reached in June 2011, November 2013, December 2017, and November 2021.

Both outlets say the pattern “has happened every time” and that “No exceptions” have occurred in the historical sample, while also adding that the pattern “has yet to be tested in the current one.”

KuCoin frames the near-term setup differently, saying Bitcoin price tests macro support at $63,000 against the 20 EMA and that fractal patterns indicate an extended final-phase premium up to the $85,000 level.

KuCoin adds that recovery would be driven by a rebound of the $75,000 supply band, while a drop to $58,000 would entail further pullback.

@coindesk

The KuCoin piece also cites trader-analyst Tardigrade highlighting the 20 EMA as a macro accumulation indicator on the monthly chart, and it says the macro trend has not been broken as long as no break occurs below the moving average.

In the same KuCoin framework, Ted focuses on short- and medium-term liquidity structure on the two-day frame, and KuCoin says a break below the $60,000 zone would reveal a bearish trend toward the lows at $50,000.

Estrategias de Inversión argues that the question “Has Bitcoin died?” is recurring, but says experts believe it’s “not the end of the cycle,” describing Bitcoin as moving through expansion and contraction cycles rather than a definitive end.

It quotes eToro analyst Javier Molina viewing the current moment as “consolidation, not collapse,” while Javier Cabrera of XTB is described as referencing the lack of immediate catalysts and being “optimistic about Bitcoin, though more as a 'long-term investment.'”

The same article says capital tends to flow into other cryptocurrencies when Bitcoin stabilizes and resumes growth, first toward larger capitalization and then toward smaller or emerging projects.

It also points to presale project Bitcoin Hyper, saying $HYPER presents itself as aiming to capitalize on the narrative and the strength of the Bitcoin brand while introducing elements aimed at improving efficiency, speed, or user experience.