Bitcoin Implied Volatility Falls to Seven-Month Low as Strategy Demand Steadies Markets

Bitcoin’s implied volatility has fallen to a seven-month low even as macro risks remain in the background, with CoinDesk citing a BVIV reading of 38% as the lowest since October 2025.

“Bitcoin implied volatility drops to 7 month low despite macro risks BTC's implied volatility is a picture of calm even as financial headlines warn of macro risks”

CoinDesk

CoinDesk also tied the calmer volatility to easing geopolitical tensions, heavy institutional demand led by Strategy (MSTR), and aggressive options selling by systematic yield strategies that suppress expectations for large price swings.

CoinDesk

Shiliang Tang, Managing Partner at Monarq Asset Management, said, “Bitcoin volatility has collapsed, and you can see it clearly in the BVIV levels, which we track closely to monitor market complacency,” linking the drop to later-stage geopolitical risk from the Iran conflict and continued BTC buying from Strategy (MSTR).

Tang added that systematic “call overwriters” are driving the yield lower by continuously selling bitcoin options to collect premium income, with BTC trading near $77,300 as described by CoinDesk.

CoinDesk further reported that Strategy purchased 171,238 BTC in 2026, outpacing the roughly 63,450 BTC mined during the same period, reinforcing the institutional demand it said helps reduce market supply.

TradingView reported that the chance of Bitcoin falling below $60,000 is “extremely slim” after long-term holders increased their holdings to 71.6% of the total supply.

The same TradingView piece said a key technical signal turned bullish for the first time since February, with analyst Sykodelic arguing the possibility of Bitcoin revisiting fresh lows “become extremely slim” after the weekly relative strength index (RS) retested the 50 level.

Cointelegraph

TradingView added that the latest move came 105 days after Bitcoin’s weekly RSI entered oversold territory for only the fourth time on record, and it described the 2022 cycle as the lone exception where Bitcoin later formed new lows due to the FTX exchange collapse.

Onchain data cited by TradingView said long-term Bitcoin supply climbed back above 15.04 million BTC for the first time since Oct. 1, 2025, accounting for 71.6% of the circulating supply.

Crypto analyst Pelin Ay, quoted by TradingView, said BTC miner activity still points to cautious positioning despite the long-term holder data, including Binance pool miner reserves dropping to 41,915 from 41,987 in May.

Cointelegraph framed a bearish scenario by saying analysts forecast a Bitcoin crash to the $60K level, revisiting 2026 low, as Bitcoin broke below a critical support zone around $75,000.

“Depuis octobre 2025, le cours du bitcoin s’est effondré, passant de plus de 100 000 euros à environ 60 000”

L'Humanité

Cointelegraph reported that Polymarket odds of Bitcoin hitting $55,000 in 2026 were 51% at the time of publication, while odds of it falling to $45,000 were 31%.

At the same time, Cointelegraph said 71% of the circulating supply is held by long-term holders, making a break below $60,000 unlikely, according to onchain data.

Trader and crypto market analyst Matthew Hyland told Cointelegraph, “There has never been a rally that trended upward for 89 days ever in a bear market in BTC history,” describing a roughly 90-day rally following the $60,000 low reached in February.

Cointelegraph also said Bitcoin’s inability to hold critical price support levels could signal months of consolidation, noting it continued to trade well below its 365-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA) and closed below the 50-day EMA on Friday, using TradingView data.