Finance29 September, 20262 min read
Bitcoin Rally Stalls as U.S. Dollar Index Gains 2.6% Since Sept. 9
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The U.S. Dollar Index rose about 2.6% since Sept. 9, reaching 101.69. Bitcoin gained roughly 6% in September despite the dollar rally.
Dollar, yields, and BTC
Bitcoin’s price action has been shaped by a rally in the U.S. Dollar Index, with CoinDesk writing that the DXY “has gained about 2.6% since Sept. 9 and hit a two-month high of 101.69 on Tuesday.”
CoinDesk also said BTC’s rally “has indeed stalled since Sept. 21,” with prices pulling back to “$83,000-$84,000 from nearly $87,500.”
TradingView data analyzed by CoinDesk showed that over the past 90 trading days daily moves in BTC and DXY had a correlation of -0.41, and CoinDesk reported that the correlation implies an R-squared of 0.17.
CoinDesk added that the shorter-term link was noisier, with the 30-day correlation “is -0.45,” but it “leans on two days, Aug. 19 and Sept. 3.”
What the data implies
CoinDesk argued that a stronger dollar should weigh on bitcoin in theory, but it said the “damage so far is small” as BTC’s link to the dollar proved looser than the standard playbook suggests.
CoinDesk reported that the 90-day correlation “has averaged -0.14” since January 2020, and it said the correlation “has turned positive at times, peaking at +0.22 in November 2024.”
TradingView said September 2026 “posted a gain of approximately 6.14%” even as the U.S. Dollar Index climbed to “101.61, its highest level since late July.”
TradingView also said the 10-year Treasury yield “surpassed 5% during the month,” while it described BTC as trading in the $83,000 to $84,600 range late September.
Levels and next tests
CoinDesk said bitcoin bulls had “one price level to defend,” noting that the world’s largest cryptocurrency “hit a high above $87,400 on Sept. 21.”
CoinDesk said BTC had pulled back to a zone “testing the $82,000 to $83,000 zone,” and it framed that area as the level that “matters.”
The Economic Times wrote that bitcoin was trading at “$84,000 level on September 30,” and it said the Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet again on “October 27-28.”
The Economic Times also said U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs currently hold “$108.4 billion,” and it reported that almost “$1 billion flowed into the funds on September 21,” before daily inflow fell to “$134 million” by September 25.