California Primaries Set Matchups for November Battlegrounds as Gavin Newsom Success Race Tightens
Key Takeaways
- California's top-two primary system advances the top two vote-getters to November.
- Moderate Democrats outpace progressives in several California primary races.
- Key California congressional races to watch will shape November matchups.
California’s Top-Two Test
Tuesday’s primaries across California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota will set matchups for crucial November battlegrounds, with California’s contests to succeed Gov. Gavin Newsom and multiple House primaries drawing the biggest attention.
“In summary The race for California’s second-highest political office features a competitive slate of Democratic candidates, from Treasurer Fiona Ma to Newsom administration official Josh Fryday and the former mayor of Stockton”
California’s top-two system means the two candidates with the most votes—regardless of party—advance to the general election, and NBC News notes it is possible for one party to be shut out of the general election.

In California’s race to succeed Newsom, the field is described as a three-way contest among two Democrats—former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and billionaire activist Tom Steyer—and former television personality Steve Hilton, a Republican.
NBC News also reports that Steyer has “dumped more than $215 million of his own money into his campaign,” while Hilton has earned the support of President Donald Trump.
In the same California primary landscape, Spectrum News frames the Democratic redraw as a bid to counter GOP redistricting in Texas, with the party aiming to gain five seats in the U.S. House.
Redistricting, Stakes, and Splits
Spectrum News says Tuesday’s primary is the first indication of whether California Democrats’ redrawn congressional map will pay off, because the top-two system can leave Democrats effectively missing out on a pickup in the San Diego suburbs.
The outlet describes how Republican Rep. Darrell Issa retired and a Republican San Diego County supervisor, Jim Desmond, stepped in to run, alongside an avalanche of nine Democrats that some fear could split the vote and leave Desmond and the only other GOP candidate, Jim O'Neil, as the top vote-getters.

Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official running for the seat, warned that being shut out would be a “nightmare,” saying, "After millions of dollars and a nationwide effort to redraw these districts in response to Texas, Democrats being shut out would be a nightmare."
In the Central Valley, Spectrum News reports Democrats redrew the seat held by Republican Rep. David Valadao to make it even more Democratic, and it says Valadao is expected to make it to the general election so the primary determines which Democrat faces him.
The Intercept adds that progressive candidates for Congress across California were failing to top more moderate Democratic opponents early on, including the race for Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s seat where YIMBY state Sen. Scott Wiener secured more than 40 percent of the vote.
Israel, Jewish Voters, and Outcomes
The Jerusalem Post frames the primaries as a test of Jewish progressive political loyalties, asking whether a Jewish progressive who believes Israel committed genocide can earn support from local Jewish communities.
“The Fierce Israel Critics Hoping to Disrupt the Democratic Party in Tuesday's New Jersey and California Primaries Gift this articleShare to FacebookPrint article Article printing is available to subscribers only Print in a simple, ad-free format Subscribe Comments: SaveZen Reading Zen reading is available to subscribers only Ad-free and in a comfortable reading format Subscribe”
It highlights Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass’s reelection fight, saying Bass is facing a three-way contest that includes Republican Spencer Pratt and Democrat Nithya Raman, and it quotes Sam Yebri warning, "A Raman mayorship would make every Jewish Angeleno less safe."
The Jerusalem Post also reports that Pratt has focused much of his campaign on the city’s response to the 2025 Pacific Palisades fire, and it includes Pratt’s statement to CNBC: "all of my best friends since kindergarten are Jewish".
Haaretz describes the broader political stakes as a window into where voters stand on the Democratic Party’s internal debate over U.S. support for Israel, saying the results in New Jersey and California will provide the latest information on the impact of that internal battle.
Haaretz also notes that “Outside spenders from both sides have poured money into races,” tying the money and the outcomes to future U.S.-Israel ties.
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