CryptoQuant Analyst Darkfost Says Bitcoin UTXO Metrics Signal Capitulation Underway

Bitcoin’s unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are showing what CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost described as capitulation underway, with the ratio of UTXOs spent in profit versus at a loss falling to the lowest level this bear market cycle.

“Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs signal capitulation underway: analyst “These periods have always been profitable for long-term investors,” said CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost”

Cointelegraph

Darkfost said the move was “the first time this signal has triggered since the start of the correction,” and framed it as “reflecting the start of a broader capitulation.”

Cointelegraph

The last time the metric fell this low was in mid-2023, when BTC prices fell to around $26,000, according to the TradingView and Cointelegraph accounts.

DurdenBTC added that the signal “caught every cycle low since 2016,” while warning it “will still feel terrible for weeks,” even if the UTXO pattern historically aligns with bear-market bottoms.

In a separate post, Darkfost said long-term holders are starting to “enter a capitulation phase,” pointing to the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) moving into negative territory for that cohort.

Darkfost also argued that the correction has been largely fueled by a rapid increase in BTC inflows to exchanges coming from short-term holders, distinguishing between longer-duration capitulation and near-term supply.

TradingView

On Saturday, onchain analytics firm Swissblock said Bitcoin has likely moved beyond the initial breakdown, but “we’re still in the base formation phase.”

TradingView reported that BTC prices dipped to $59,800 in early trading on Sunday morning and had recovered the $60,100 level at the time of writing, while also noting that momentum remained negative in Swissblock’s framing.

Beyond on-chain metrics, TradingView linked near-term uncertainty and selling pressure to resumed strikes by the US military on Iranian targets over the weekend, citing Central Command.

“Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs signal capitulation underway: analyst Analysis of Bitcoin unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) shows that investors are capitulating, a pattern that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms”

TradingView

The report said US fighter jets conducted strikes on 10 Iranian military targets at multiple locations in and near the Strait of Hormuz late on Saturday in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial ship.

Cointelegraph similarly tied “Selling pressure may increase” to those resumed strikes, while reiterating that BTC prices dipped to $59,800 and recovered $60,100 at the time of writing.

Against that backdrop, the UTXO bottoming narrative remains focused on process rather than instant stabilization, with Darkfost warning it “is a process that takes time, and we are on a long timeframe.”