DOJ Arrests Special Operations Soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke Over Polymarket Bets on Maduro

The U.S. Department of Justice announced Thursday that it arrested and charged Gannon Ken Van Dyke, a special operations soldier involved in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, for allegedly pocketing more than $400,000 by betting on Maduro’s removal from office.

ABC News said Van Dyke bet more than $33,000 on the prediction market Polymarket just days before President Donald Trump announced Maduro’s capture, and that the series of bets “netted more than $409,000.”

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Reuters’ reporting in the ABC News account described how the bets prompted scrutiny within prediction markets and a “monthslong investigation” into whether inside information was used.

The DOJ indictment, as quoted by ABC News, says: “Rather than safeguard that information as he was obligated to do, VAN DYKE decided to use that classified information to place trades on a prediction market platform for his personal profit,” and it adds that Van Dyke “subsequently tried to conceal his unlawful use of classified U.S. Government information by attempting to obscure the source of his unlawful proceeds and to disguise his connection to the accounts linked to the accounts linked to the illicit trades.”

Axios reported that the case lands as regulators and lawmakers intensify scrutiny of prediction markets, and it said this is the first time the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has filed charges of insider trading in connection with event contracts, per a CFTC statement.

Multiple outlets tied the alleged conduct to Van Dyke’s role in “Operation Absolute Resolve,” with CNBC saying he “was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve,” which apprehended Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in early January.

Prosecutors’ account places Van Dyke’s alleged trading activity in the week leading up to the Jan. 3 capture, with ABC News describing bets placed on Polymarket shortly before Trump’s announcement and Axios describing the indictment’s allegations about the soldier’s access and timing.

CNBC said Van Dyke wagered “a total of about $33,000 in 13 or so bets in the week leading up to that operation,” and that the bets won him “nearly $410,000,” according to the indictment unsealed Thursday in U.S. District Court in Manhattan.

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Axios said the indictment, unsealed in the Southern District of New York on Thursday, alleges Van Dyke created a Polymarket account in December and began trading on markets related to Maduro and Venezuela, spending more than $33,000 to place 13 bets that yielded him a profit of nearly $410,000.

The Hill reported that Van Dyke placed “about $33,000 worth of bets” about U.S. operations in Venezuela and Maduro’s ouster between Dec. 27 and Jan. 2, before the Jan. 3 capture of Maduro and his wife.

Time Magazine added more detail on the alleged trading window, saying Van Dyke “purportedly traded on Maduro- and Venezuela-related contracts 13 times, purchasing approximately $33,934 in “yes” shares” between “the next day and Jan. 2, 2026.”

Several outlets also described the alleged “cover-up” steps after the operation, with ABC News saying Van Dyke allegedly tried to delete his Polymarket account and change the email address registered to his cryptocurrency exchange account after he saw reports about unusual trading associated with the mission.

The DOJ case, as described across outlets, centers on Van Dyke’s access to classified information and the nondisclosure agreements he signed.

“DOJ arrests soldier who made $400,000 betting on Maduro's removal Gannon Ken Van Dyke, who allegedly placed the bet, helped with Maduro's capture”

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Axios said Van Dyke took part in the planning and execution of the military operation to capture Maduro on Jan. 3, according to the indictment, and it quoted FBI assistant director James Barnacle saying Van Dyke “profited more than $400,000 by trading various outcomes related to Venezuela after learning of the operation because of his role as a U.S. Army soldier.”

Axios also reported that Van Dyke “had ‘signed nondisclosure agreements in which he promised to 'never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise ... any classified or sensitive information' relating to military operations,” per a DOJ statement.

CNBC described the same nondisclosure agreement language in more detail, saying that on Dec. 8, 2025, Van Dyke received a “Classified Information Security Briefing” and executed a nondisclosure agreement in which he agreed never to “divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, word, conduct, or otherwise, to any unauthorized person, any classified or sensitive information” relating to U.S. Army Special Operations Command operations within the Western Hemisphere.

Time Magazine similarly said Van Dyke signed nondisclosure agreements promising to “never divulge, publish, or reveal by writing, words, conduct, or otherwise . . . any classified or sensitive information” relating to military operations.

ABC News added that prosecutors said Van Dyke was photographed on the deck of the USS Iwo Jima—where Maduro was moved following his capture—wearing military fatigues and holding a rifle alongside other service members.

The arrest and charges have triggered a regulatory focus on prediction markets, with outlets describing both the DOJ and the CFTC’s role and the platforms’ responses.

Axios said the case is the first time the CFTC has filed charges of insider trading in connection with event contracts, and it described the “Eddie Murphy Rule” as Section 746 of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act.

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CNBC reported that the CFTC “charged Van Dyke in a civil complaint with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act,” while also noting that the criminal and civil cases were filed in Manhattan federal court.

ABC News said Polymarket referred the suspicious bets to the Department of Justice and cooperated with the investigation, quoting a Polymarket spokesperson: “Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today's arrest is proof the system works.”

The Hill quoted Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan saying, “Noise aside, the reality is we work proactively with all relevant authorities on any suspicious activity on our marketplace,” and it added that Coplan said every Polymarket trade is “public, permanent and auditable.”

President Donald Trump’s reaction, as reported by ABC News and DeFi Rate, included his comparison to Pete Rose and his broader remarks about prediction markets being “a casino,” with ABC News quoting Trump: “That's like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” and DeFi Rate quoting Trump as saying, “the whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.”

The case is being treated by multiple outlets as a turning point for how prediction markets are policed, and it also raises questions about national security and platform integrity.

WSJ described the arrest as “a watershed moment for prediction markets,” saying the case against Van Dyke “marks the first U.S. prosecution for insider trading in prediction markets,” and it tied the alleged trades to “more than $400,000” in bets on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro.

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Quartz said the Justice Department alleged Van Dyke used access to nonpublic classified information to trade on Polymarket, and it described the trading timeline beginning on Dec. 26, 2025, with “roughly 13 individual wagers totaling approximately $33,034,” and profit reaching “about $409,881.”

The Hill framed the national security risk in terms of adversaries reading market signals, quoting Alex Goldenberg again that “Prediction markets on military ops are a real-time intelligence feed for our enemies,” and it quoted Frank Kendall warning that “All it takes is monitoring for patterns that deviate from established norms.”

WRAL’s report focused on “difficulty of regulating prediction markets,” and it described the challenge of preventing insider trading in popular prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi.

Looking ahead, the legal exposure described by Axios and CNBC includes wire fraud and multiple Commodity Exchange Act counts, with Axios saying Van Dyke was charged with “one count of wire fraud, which carries a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison,” and CNBC describing maximum penalties including “up to 10 years” for remaining counts.