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Kalshi Bets Probe
Federal investigators are looking into former U.S. Rep. George Santos for alleged insider trading tied to Kalshi bets about whether he would attend President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address, according to USA TODAY and NPR.
“Insider trading investigation launched into former Rep”
USA TODAY said Santos’ legal team told the DOJ might be looking into him after an NPR report accused the former congressman of being reported by Kalshi on insider trading claims, and Santos wrote on X, "My legal team and I were made aware by a report from NPR yesterday that the DOJ might be looking into me."
NPR reported that in February, four months after being released from federal prison, Santos posted on X, "I'm going to be there for the State of Union in the gallery, guys," a video that sent odds soaring on Kalshi before he did not show up.
NPR said Kalshi detected Santos’ trades, froze his account, and referred the case to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and the Department of Justice, and that Santos later wrote, "Well, that's news to me," when reached by NPR about the probe.
NPR also reported that Santos said, "I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no" when asked whether he had a Kalshi account, while USA TODAY reported the Department of Justice did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Santos Denies, Regulators Act
Multiple outlets tied the investigation to Kalshi’s referral after suspicious trades connected to Santos’ attendance, with ABC News saying sources told it that Kalshi flagged wagers Santos made in February tied to his attendance at Trump’s State of the Union speech.
ABC News reported that Santos placed bets on Kalshi that he would not attend the 2026 State of the Union address, but on Feb. 23 he posted, "I'll be in the gallery" for the president's speech, and on the night of the speech he posted, "Watching SOTU from an airport tv was not part of the plan! FML."
ABC News said the CFTC's enforcement division is now investigating and will decide whether Santos made tens of thousands of dollars by deceiving the public and affecting the odds, while NPR said the profit was in the tens of thousands of dollars based on deception.
NPR reported that Santos told NPR, "I'm not saying yes, I'm not saying no" when asked about a Kalshi account, and that he also said the co-founder of Kalshi, Luana Lopes Lara, is "a fellow Brazilian" whom he personally knows.
USA TODAY added that CNN is reporting the Commodity Futures Trading Commission is investigating the matter, and it said Santos had been released from federal prison late last year after being convicted of wire fraud alongside aggravated identity theft.
Aftermath and Scrutiny
The probe arrives as prediction markets face broader scrutiny, with USA TODAY describing how Kalshi reported Santos to the DOJ over bets guessing if he’d attend Trump’s State of the Union or not, and with NPR placing the case within a wider moment of intense scrutiny of prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket.
NPR reported that traders were placing millions of dollars worth of bets on who would attend, and it said Santos’ video confirming his presence sent odds soaring before he posted from an airport during the speech.
NPR said Santos’ trading on his own movements followed one of the most dramatic downfalls in recent political history, including that he was expelled from Congress in December 2023 after prosecutors charged him with 13 counts of wire fraud, money laundering and stealing money from political donors.
USA TODAY said Santos’ sentence was commuted by President Donald Trump three months into his seven-year term, and it quoted Santos on X calling the accusation "preposterous" while saying he would supply information to any agency that inquires.
NPR reported that neither the CFTC nor the Justice Department returned requests for comment, and that Kalshi declined to comment, leaving the next step dependent on whether regulators and prosecutors decide to pursue the case further.
