Israeli Politicsupdated 36m ago3 min read
Economist Warns Netanyahu Election Could Accelerate Israelis’ Exodus From Israel
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Israeli leaving country in record numbers over the past three years Looming election could accelerate the emigration trend
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“99,000 Israelis left the country between January 2023 and December 2024.”
“as many as 50,000 potentially immigrating to Israel in the coming years”
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Record emigration, election looming
Economist Itai Ater said data he reviewed in Tel Aviv shows more Israelis have left the country over the past three years than ever before, and he warned the trend could accelerate depending on the outcome of next week's legislative elections.
Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, said, "Israelis are thinking, 'do I want to raise my kids in a country like this?'" and added, "Unfortunately, and I understand, I sympathize with their answers, many of them realize that the answer is no. And that's why they're leaving."
CBC reported that a study using data collected from the Central Bureau of Statistics found 99,000 Israelis left the country between January 2023 and December 2024, including 50,000 in 2023 and 49,000 in 2024.
Ater said the looming election could push those numbers even higher in 2026, and he tied the concern to jobs by pointing to net departures of 2,360 Israeli engineers and 509 net departures from doctors.
CBC said polls suggest Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right bloc will fall short of the requisite 61 seats in the Knesset, while a rival bloc headed by Gadi Eisenkot is positioned to secure the most seats, leaving Eisenkot's coalition expected to be short of a majority.
West Bank operation before vote
The Israeli army announced on Friday, October 23, 2026, the start of a broad military operation in the occupied West Bank that included search raids, arrests, and demolition of buildings after an armed attack near Hebron killed two Israeli soldiers and injured three others. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a security cordon around Hebron and said that he and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz were studying a wide-ranging operation described as unprecedented since the 1967 war, while the army said the firefight lasted more than twenty minutes before the militants were killed. Finance Minister Avigdor Lieberman called for a military campaign in the West Bank "just as in Gaza and Lebanon," demanding the dismantling of the Palestinian Authority, confiscation of weapons, and eradicating the militants.
B'Tselem urged preventing forced displacement, collective punishment, and widespread destruction in Hebron, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern about Israeli closures and their impact on Palestinians' livelihoods, urging all parties to halt the violence. The operation came ahead of the Israeli elections scheduled for Tuesday, October 27, 2026, after the Likud Party announced the cancellation of political events planned for Friday, October 23, 2026 following the attack.
Polls, thresholds, and coalition math
Israel's final television election polls published Friday by Kan 11, Channel 12 and Channel 13 ahead of Tuesday's October 27 election put Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud, but they projected neither bloc reaching the 61 seats needed to form a government. The three surveys, with about 7.3 million Israelis eligible to vote, projected Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc winning exactly 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, while the opposition's so-called change bloc received between 52 and 56 seats, and the Arab parties were projected to win between 14 and 16 seats. The polls highlighted the central challenge of Israel's 3.25% electoral threshold, and the surveys showed Ofer Winter's People of Israel party falling below the cutoff with 2.9% in Kan 11, 2.5% in Channel 12, and 3.1% in Channel 13.
The polls also showed the joint Reservists-Economic Party facing uncertainty, with Kan 11 projecting four seats while Channel 12 put its support at 2.4% and Channel 13 at 3.0%, both below the threshold. The poll of polls placed Eisenkot's Yashar first with 22 seats, followed by Netanyahu's Likud with 20 and Bennett's B'Yachad with 15, while the composite gave the Democrats and the Arab-majority Joint List nine seats each.