Europeupdated 48m ago2 min read
El País Says Trumpism Setbacks Won’t Automatically Reverse Europe’s Far-Right Advance
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Midterm defeat signals decline of Trumpism but not its persistence internationally. Analysts say Trumpism survives Trump, shaping future European politics and electorates.
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EU electoral horizon
The U.S. midterm elections were framed by El País as a potential illusion for Europe’s “electoral horizon,” arguing that Trumpism’s setbacks in Washington do not automatically translate into a European reversal. The European “electoral supercycle starts in barely three weeks in Spain” and will end with “the final exam in France in the spring,” while the far-right’s advance is “starting to be the rule across the continent.” Spain’s center-right has “rolled out the red carpet to the far-right Vox,” and “Meloni seems likely to repeat in Italy” and “Le Pen leads the polls in France.”
El País also tied Europe’s security to wars, saying “Wars condition European security” while Europe “continues to drag its feet on strategic autonomy,” depending on what happens in Kiev. Trump remains, and not to mention Trumpism, for a while.
Aid, tariffs, and NATO
The Democrats will “block new war credits against Iran and guarantee aid to Ukraine in the budget,” while Europe “can continue to rely on NATO protection.” New American tariffs on EU exports loom, and the shift after “the loss of both chambers of Congress” moves Trump from “an all-powerful president to that of a manager of a shattered Republican camp.” The president “maintains broad powers in foreign policy,” but the midterm “debacle” changes “geopolitical and political calculations on a worldwide scale.”
The “loss of control of both houses does not by itself imply a decisive geopolitical turn,” while the “political message of the ballot boxes is overwhelming.” Trump felt compelled to announce his intention to cut the “roughly $4 billion in military aid” as the vote connected to the war launched against Iran and “growing rejection of Netanyahu’s Israel” surfaced.
Ukraine, Putin, and 2028
The midterm outcome “lands with a heavy blow” for Vladimir Putin because Trump’s “makeshift ally in the White House” is “now paralyzed,” and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “breathes.”
A “Democratic majority, firmly supportive of Kyiv” will “guarantee the constant unlocking of financial and military aid in the upcoming budgets,” while the “threat” to “European industry” through “international trade.”
The “race for the 2028 presidential election is launched,” naming “Vice President J.D. Vance” among those seeking to succeed Trump.
The “prospect of a change in the White House in 2028 is reinforced,” and it argues that it would be “a grave mistake” to think a Democratic victory would simply restore an “old format” transatlantic alliance.
Everyone will take that prospect into account from today, with Ukraine’s “resistance” and Putin’s “aggression” as the places where the new calculations would show up.