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Ceuta surge and elections
A migrant surge into Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa, involved about 50,000 Moroccan migrants before authorities quickly booted them out again, as Europe’s far right sought political advantage ahead of elections in 2027.
“some 50,000 Moroccan migrants surged into Ceuta”
The Lowy Institute said authorities erected a 500-metre-long sea barrier to prevent further mass crossings, and it framed the incident as set to cast a long shadow over European elections in 2027.
The same analysis tied the timing to a crowded electoral calendar, noting France’s presidential poll in April, Spain’s next election due before August, Poland expected to vote around October, and Italy voting before December or possibly as soon as April.
It also said that in Paris, Élysée Palace contenders will gather on 27 August at Roland-Garros for the first French presidential candidates' TV debate, with Marine Le Pen expected to use the Ceuta episode.
The Lowy Institute added that Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni swiftly suspended passport-free travel under Schengen with Spain, promising to heavily screen third-country nationals arriving from the kingdom.
Vannacci attacks Meloni
Robert Vannacci, leader of Futuro Nazionale, criticized Giorgia Meloni’s handling of immigration by telling Il Foglio on August 4 that Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez “is right” while describing Meloni’s record as “a fiasco.”
In the same interview, Vannacci said Italy is “doing very badly” on migration and argued that the government’s flows decree, including a “click day” system, leaves people “not adequately monitored.”
Vannacci welcomed Sánchez’s decision to return around 60,000 irregular migrants after the recent Ceuta crossings, while also criticizing Spain’s earlier regularization of more than 500,000 undocumented people as a pull factor.
He called for a tripling of detention centers (CPR), physical barriers, and measures modeled on Norway that remove incentives for irregular entry, and he said: “The only measure that will allow us to minimize illegal entries is the Australian model.”
The Brussels Signal account of Vannacci’s stance also described Italy’s debate over border control after the Ceuta events and Italy’s temporary suspension of Schengen rules with Spain.
Polls and coalition math
El Mundo reported that Futuro Nacional, led by Roberto Vannacci, continued to gain ground in Italy and said the average of polls published by YouTrend indicated that if general elections were held today, Futuro Nacional would obtain 7.1% of the votes.
“Futuro Nacional would obtain 7.1% of the votes”
The same El Mundo piece said La Liga, Meloni’s government’s minority partner, would stay at 5.9%, Forza Italia would remain steady at 8%, and Hermanos de Italia would not reach 27%.
El Mundo also described how Vannacci’s rise is explained by a transfer of votes within the conservative bloc, citing an Ipsos study that said more than a third of those who lean toward him come from abstention, at 31% from Hermanos de Italia and 25% from the Liga of Salvini.
It added that if Meloni (HDI), Tajani (FI), Salvini (Liga) and Vannacci (FN) were to run together today, the ultra-conservative bloc would approach 47% of the votes, close to the progressive left bloc’s 44.3%.
El Mundo concluded that Meloni faces a dilemma over whether to dispense with Vannacci or bring him into the coalition, framing the challenge as preventing him from eroding her leadership from within.
