FalconX Strategist Gaspar Martin Says Bitcoin Is Reaching A Market Bottom

Bitcoin is trading in a down market since October, but FalconX’s senior crypto market strategist Martin Gaspar writes that “BTC is reaching a market bottom and is poised for a turnaround” as sentiment around Strategy (MSTR) turns from “hysteria to calm.”

“Crypto Long & Short: With MSTR concerns assuaged, look to traditional signals around BTC In this week's Crypto Long & Short, FalconX’s Gaspar Martin writes that BTC is reaching a market bottom and is poised for a turnaround”

@coindesk

CoinDesk’s Crypto Long & Short says the money-supply backdrop is accelerating, noting it has “surpassing $23 trillion for the first time in May,” and adds that the month-over-month jump was “over 1% and the highest since 2021.”

@coindesk

The same CoinDesk package points to bitcoin’s fixed supply of “21 million BTC” and argues that investors can return to “classic market signals around bitcoin” as MSTR concerns ease.

CoinDesk also highlights BTC ETF flows, saying the ETFs “experienced $5.4 billion of outflows YTD through June 30,” while adding that there were “$8.2 billion of outflows since May 12.”

CoinDesk’s Crypto Long & Short frames ETF outflows as a near-term phenomenon, saying the “$8.2 billion of outflows since May 12” likely reflected “MSTR concerns and a freeing of capital around the SpaceX (SPCX) IPO.”

To support a stabilization thesis, CoinDesk says “BTC’s Coinbase premium has improved considerably since the end of the quarter,” presenting it as a sign that “investor appetite may be coming back.”

Pluang

The newsletter also describes a shift in holder behavior, saying “around 45% of long-term holder supply” is “sitting at a loss,” and that this aligns with levels “associated with prior market bottoms.”

CoinDesk adds that “BTC supply held by long term holders” is “climbing to a record high in recent weeks,” while “on-chain movements of longer-held BTC have abated from last year.”

TradingView’s coverage of the “Bitcoin Bull Score” says CryptoQuant’s Bull Score index “has just crossed the 50 threshold, finally leaving the red zone to enter neutral territory.”

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CoinDesk

The same piece quotes CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, saying his analysis is “clear: for the first time since the start of this bear market, the Bitcoin Bull Score has risen to 50.”

TradingView also warns that the index’s neutrality can be temporary, pointing to a precedent in March 2022 when the Bull Score “had already brushed this neutral threshold for a week before the market resumed its decline.”

In its framework, TradingView says the “real bull zone” begins at 60, and it reports that in mid-2025 Bitcoin traded “well above $120,000” when the Bull Score was “regularly anchored above 60.”