Finance07 September, 20262 min read
FCA Weighs Lifting April 2019 Ban on UK Retail Prediction Markets
This article is an automated aggregation of coverage from news outlets. Our editorials offer in-depth analysis curated by the NewsCord team.
FCA has held talks with trading platforms about easing the 2019 ban on prediction markets. UK consumers increasingly use US platforms Kalshi and Polymarket.
9 outlets told this the same way.
FCA reconsiders retail ban
The UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) is reportedly weighing lifting its April 2019 ban on prediction market platforms for UK-based retail investors, with The Times saying the regulator has reached out to companies as part of discussions. The ban, in place since 2019, classifies certain event contracts as binary options and bars firms from selling, marketing, or distributing them to retail consumers, a framework that the FCA’s executive director of strategy and competition Christopher Woolard described at the time as "gambling products dressed up as financial instruments."
The reported review is tied to how prediction markets offer binary options on event contracts, including sports, politics and the weather, and how those products fall under the FCA’s April 2019 prohibition. The Times report also frames the issue through UK consumer behavior, saying many retail investors have used virtual private networks (VPNs) to bypass the restrictions and execute trades on Kalshi and Polymarket, both with operations in the US.
Regulatory line and US cases
The FCA’s discussions come as the UK market already relies on overseas access, with PYMNTS reporting that the regulator prohibits financial prediction markets for retail investors because they are seen as binary options, a trade on whether an event will or won’t occur. PYMNTS also quotes a government source saying, "It’s like most prohibitions—they are largely ineffective," and adds that the source warned regulators are driving consumers to operators with "no regulatory standards at all."
In the US, the same platforms face legal pressure, with Cryptonews.net saying last week New Jersey officials petitioned the Supreme Court to hear its case against Kalshi. Cryptonews.net links any UK shift to the broader US dispute by noting that if the FCA overturns the 2019 ban, prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket could face similar challenges as they deal with state gaming authorities filing lawsuits over sporting event contracts.
What changes next
Even if the FCA eases restrictions, the sources say UK access would still depend on how the regulator draws the line between financial prediction contracts and other categories, because sports and political markets fall under Gambling Commission oversight rather than direct FCA supervision. PYMNTS reports that prediction markets offering financial as well as political wagers would need an end to the binary option ban from the FCA and a gambling license to offer bets on political events, such as the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections.
“They would also need a gambling license to offer bets on political events, such as the outcome of the U.S. midterm elections.”
The financial stakes are also described through Bernstein Research projections, with BigGo Finance saying global trading volume across the sector could reach roughly $240 billion in 2026 and expand to around $1 trillion by 2030. BigGo Finance adds that the talks have not yet produced a public consultation, proposed rule, or implementation timetable, and it notes that the FCA had not announced any policy change as of September 7, 2026.