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Galaxy’s $10M CLARITY bet
Galaxy Digital launched an institutional over-the-counter prediction-markets desk through its Global Markets unit, opening the service with a $10 million event swap tied to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
“opening the service with a $10 million event swap tied to the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act”
The first trade let crypto hedge fund Arca take a position on whether the CLARITY Act will pass before 2027, with Arca paying Galaxy if the bill becomes law before that deadline and Galaxy paying Arca if it does not.
Galaxy said the desk is designed to support large trades on Kalshi and Polymarket that public order books cannot absorb, and it would act as a principal counterparty to quote large bilateral trades and hold the risk on its own book.
In parallel, the CLARITY Act was placed on the United States Senate Legislative Calendar as of June 1, 2026 after clearing the Senate Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote, though the calendar placement did not announce a floor vote date.
Urban and Dorman on liquidity
Jason Urban, Galaxy’s Global Co-Head of Digital Assets, said the firm is “giving clients a principal counterparty that can warehouse risk, build hedged strategies across asset classes, and execute at sizes and scale that actually matter to their overall portfolios.”
Jeff Dorman, Arca’s Chief Investment Officer, said “prediction markets are currently not a sophisticated institutional market with enough liquidity for a fund of our size,” adding that using the OTC market with Galaxy let Arca execute a trade that best suits its fund strategy.
TradingView framed the bill’s progress as the CLARITY Act completing five of nine steps toward becoming law, with remaining steps including a Senate floor vote requiring 60 votes, potential House-Senate reconciliation, and presidential signature.
CoinDesk reported that Galaxy facilitated the $10 million transaction with Arca tied to the CLARITY Act proposal and said Galaxy can take on risk as principal counterparty while offering greater discretion than exchange-based trading.
What’s next for institutions
Galaxy said its OTC offering covers non-sports event contracts traded on Kalshi and Polymarket, spanning economic, political, geopolitical, and other event-driven markets, with plans to expand to additional platforms.
“Galaxy can also pair prediction market positions with hedges in equities, commodities”
The firm also said it can pair prediction market positions with hedges in equities, commodities, and other assets, aiming to let clients build complete risk strategies around a single event rather than managing exposure in silos.
Galaxy’s launch comes as prediction markets have cleared more than $60 billion in 2026 volume, while Galaxy said liquidity remains limited for larger tickets where a $10 million order could affect pricing before execution is complete.
With the CLARITY Act now formally in the Senate queue after being placed on the calendar, TradingView said the next concrete milestone is for Senate leadership to announce a scheduled floor debate and vote date before the next stage begins.
