Iran Attacks Israel with Missiles and Drones in Retaliation for Israeli and U.S. Strike

Iran has launched widespread asymmetric attacks targeting infrastructure, energy installations, and civilian sites across the Gulf region in retaliation for Israeli and U.S. strikes.

Iran has strategically identified Gulf states as the 'soft underbelly' of the confrontation, using this approach to pressure the United States and potentially shorten the duration of the conflict.

Al-Jazeera Net

Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait have all announced they were subjected to attacks by missiles and drones launched by Iran toward vital facilities and sites within their territories.

These attacks reflect Iran's broader strategy of applying asymmetric pressure rather than engaging in direct conventional warfare, focusing on economic and strategic vulnerabilities of its adversaries.

The Gulf states have responded with extreme caution and restraint, avoiding full-scale military confrontation with Iran despite the attacks.

This measured approach stems from multiple strategic limitations: Gulf states are militarily aware of their capabilities against Iran, economically vulnerable to disruptions particularly in energy exports and global trade through the Strait of Hormuz, and uncertain about U.S. commitment and objectives as regional guarantor.

CNBC

Their strategy involves allowing allied forces to operate from their territories, conducting limited offensive actions that maintain plausible deniability, and refraining from moves that could provoke significant Iranian retaliation.

This reflects a clear-eyed understanding of their strategic and economic vulnerabilities with limited room for unilateral action.

The war is causing significant regional realignments, with Tehran's proxies in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iran itself reportedly in retreat.

Despite this strategic setback for Iran's network, the Gulf states have come to the conflict with the assumption that the Iranian regime will not disappear, despite bellicose language from Washington and Jerusalem about reshaping Iran's government.

Qatar may expel Hamas leaders from its territory over their refusal to condemn Iranian attacks, indicating a potential shift in regional dynamics.

Meanwhile, Arab countries seeking to counterbalance Israeli military dominance are forging closer ties with Turkey, as evidenced by Saudi Arabia's recent rapprochement with Turkey, much to Netanyahu's consternation.

The Iranian attacks have demonstrated Israel's potential to be perceived as a 'regional bully that is out of control' in the eyes of Arab states, who are increasingly seeking ways to counterbalance its military dominion.

This perception is driving strategic recalculations across the region, as traditional alignments shift.

The Jerusalem Post

The strikes have been described as a 'rude awakening' for Gulf states regarding their vulnerabilities, but Dennis Ross predicts that rather than political normalization, the current situation will encourage greater military integration between the Gulf states, the U.S., and Israel.

Gulf states are particularly eager to acquire Israeli Iron Beam technology—a system using high-energy lasers to intercept missiles and drones—as part of this enhanced security cooperation.

The broader strategic implications of this conflict extend far beyond immediate battlefield concerns, potentially redefining regional balances of power for decades.

“A few days ago, the war that Israel and the United States launched against Iran entered its third week, and Israelis made bleary-eyed preparations for Shabbat”

The New Yorker

From the perspective of Gulf states, the war represents a test of whether a lasting regional and international framework will emerge to prevent Tehran from rebuilding its military and nuclear capabilities.

The New Yorker

The outcome could fundamentally alter perceptions of U.S. credibility as a security guarantor in the region and reshape relations between Gulf states and Israel.

Should the Iranian regime survive the war even in a weakened state, the consequences for the Gulf could be profound, potentially undermining U.S. credibility while Israel might be blamed for drawing the U.S. into a perilous military adventure.