Iranian Debate Over Israel Election: Netanyahu’s Grip, War Prospects, Likud and Eisenkot Blocs

Iran watches Israel vote

Iranian debate over Israel’s election centered on whether Benjamin Netanyahu’s departure would reduce the military threat to Iran, with journalist Reza Ghabishawee saying the Israeli prime minister’s identity “has become important to Iranians.” Mansour Barati argued that disagreement among Israeli politicians concerns “methods and the ability to achieve goals more than the stance toward Tehran,” while DW described non-decisive results that left Netanyahu’s Likud bloc on 53 seats and Gadi Eisenkot’s bloc on 48, with Arab parties securing 19 seats. Iran’s regime supporters and opponents also diverged on how the vote should be read for war prospects, as the opposition bet on Netanyahu’s continuation to “double pressure on Tehran.”

Zainab Soleimani rejected distinguishing between Israeli parties, writing that “the yellow dog is the brother of the jackal” to emphasize that Israeli politicians resemble each other regardless of affiliation. The opposition’s calculations collided with fears of escalation, as مونت كارلو الدولية framed the post-election period as one where government formation disputes and “the possibility of war” could prolong Netanyahu’s stay in power.

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Coalition math and vetoes

DW said Netanyahu’s bloc won 53 seats and that Netanyahu would need to win over opposition parties to form a government, while Liberman told reporters that “the only possible coalition is one in which Netanyahu himself does not take part.” DW added that HaReshima, led by Naftali Bennett, won twelve seats and that Bennett signaled he would not oppose a coalition with Netanyahu’s bloc under certain conditions, including an immediate commission of inquiry into the October 7, 2023 attacks. مونت كارلو الدولية reported that Avigdor Lieberman rejected forming a coalition that includes Arab parties, and it said opposition efforts to build an alternative stalled as the consultation phase raised fears of war with Iran.

El País argued that Netanyahu’s position remained uncertain, saying he “faces 67 votes short of forming a government (61 are needed), against 53,” and it described the “two formulas” to avoid a repeated election. Times of Israel said Netanyahu protested that the election was “stolen” and that the vote was illegitimate, while it also stated that Israel’s election authorities and the Shin Bet indicated interference was limited and “the election was not, in fact, stolen.”

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Netanyahu’s grip, next risks

El País portrayed Netanyahu as able to keep cards “up his sleeve,” arguing that he could perpetuate himself at the head of the Government for “another six months until a new election.”

El País also linked the political stalemate to security and legal consequences, saying Netanyahu would continue to “dodge justice for corruption charges” and avoid an investigation into the “tragic day of October 7, 2023.”

DW described the opposition’s constrained options, noting that Eisenkot ruled out rotation by saying, “There will be no form of rotation for the prime ministership. There will be one prime minister, and that is me.”

Times of Israel said Netanyahu’s “stolen election” claims were focused on the Arab parties, which it described as scoring a historic high of 19 seats in the Knesset, and it warned that the claim could chill Arab turnout while firing up Netanyahu’s base.

In Iran’s debate, Deputy Nizam al-Din Mousavi announced a rejection of recognizing Israel in principle, while the opposition’s fear of war during government formation remained a central obstacle to translating election results into “real political change,” according to مونت كارلو الدولية.

Reporting for this sectionEl País