Europeupdated 1h ago2 min read
Marine Le Pen And Jean-Luc Mélenchon Cement Leads In Fiducial Poll For France’s 2027 Election
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Marine Le Pen leads first-round polling in most scenarios, Mélenchon behind. Ifop Fiducial poll shows Mélenchon often in second round against rivals.
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BBC“French intelligence had briefed government circles earlier this month that left-wing anarchist groups were involved in the student protests.”
The Guardian“Prime minister Sébastien Lecornu accused ‘ultra-left’ provocateurs of stirring disorder as part of a strategy to render the country ungovernable”
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Polls after October 17
Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon have solidified their positions as contenders for the 2027 presidential election in the latest Fiducial poll for Le Figaro, which also confirms the collapse of center candidates (Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal) before an increasingly polarized electorate. Marine Le Pen boycotted a meeting of political leaders convened by Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after accusing the Government of “having lost control” and certifying that we are facing “the last act of Macronism.” The poll gives Le Pen between 36% and 38% support in the first round, more than 20 points ahead of all her rivals, while Mélenchon rises slightly to 16.5% of voting intent.
The poll places Édouard Philippe at 12% and Gabriel Attal at 5%, and it also shows Raphaël Glucksmann at 13.5% in the first-round voting intentions. Benjamin Morel, professor at the University of Paris-Panthéon-Assas, said, “The great winner of everything that has happened since the weekend is undoubtedly Marine Le Pen.”
Second-round scenarios
Ifop polling for LCI, Le Figaro, and Sud Radio places Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round in almost all scenarios, while Marine Le Pen leads broadly and would win all the second-round duels studied. The Ifop poll projects Marine Le Pen winning with 68% of the votes against Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s 32% in the second round, and it also projects her victory in all other confrontations studied. The poll’s closest duel is against Édouard Philippe, where the RN candidate would obtain 56% of the votes versus 44% for the Le Havre mayor.
The poll also credits Bruno Retailleau with between 5% and 7% of voting intentions, and it credits David Lisnard with 7% in a scenario without the president of The Republicans. The survey was conducted from October 17 to 19 among 2,081 people aged 18 and over, and it measures voting intentions at the time it was conducted, not a forecast of the election result.
Youth, blame, and order
An Ifop-Fiducial poll for LCI, Le Figaro and Sud Radio shows Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon each capturing one third of the voting intentions of those under 35, in all considered scenarios.
The poll says that if Édouard Philippe were the only candidate from the central bloc, the RN candidate would obtain 30% of the votes among 18-24-year-olds and 31% among 25-34-year-olds, while LFI would gather 40% of the voting intentions among 18-24-year-olds and 25% among 25-34-year-olds.
The poll says the second round would split youth votes, with those under 35 voting as much for Jean-Luc Mélenchon as Marine Le Pen, and it says Le Pen would receive more votes if her rival were Raphaël Glucksmann (53%).
Katya Adler’s reporting frames France as divided over who to blame for riots, and it quotes Elisabeth saying, “This is not the face of France! You media all focus on the violence and destruction of Saturday's protests.”
Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu is quoted as speaking of “insurrections” planned by “small far-left and ultra-left groups,” while Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez is quoted saying, “pouring oil onto the fire”.