Technology and Science06 September, 20263 min read
Met Office Forecasts 28C Warm Spell Across UK as Southerly Wind Returns
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Southern England could reach 27–28C as a southerly wind brings hot air. England and Wales mostly mid-20s Celsius, warmest spots in the southeast.
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Heat returns, then fades
After a brief reprieve from the heat, temperatures could reach almost 30C in parts of the UK due to a brief warm spell, with the hottest areas reaching 28C today. The Met Office said that as September progresses, the distribution of rainfall becomes increasingly uncertain, while temperatures are likely to be around average overall with some warm spells possible, particularly in the south. The Independent said parts of south-east England could reach 27 or 28C on Sunday, while England and Wales more widely were forecast to see temperatures in the mid-20s, with the heat expected to pass by Monday.
The Independent also tied the return to a southerly wind drawing in hot and humid air from the continent, and said sunshine would develop for many later in the day, increasing temperatures for many. The BBC similarly forecast a southerly wind would draw in hot and humid air from the near continent, pushing UK temperatures above average, with the hottest locations in south-east England reaching 27 or 28C.
Long-range uncertainty and El Niño
Metro.co.uk reported that from mid-September onwards, prediction of the weather is much less accurate, and quoted the Met Office on rainfall becoming increasingly uncertain at longer ranges. It also said the UK is bracing for a slew of storms and rainfall this autumn and winter brought by the El Nino phenomenon, describing El Nino as happening every three to seven years when worldwide temperatures are pushed up by a weather system that shifts ocean winds. Metro.co.uk added that the natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to reach more than 3°C in the coming months, making this year’s weather front the largest since the 19th century, according to Met Office forecasters.
The article quoted Professor Adam Scaife, Met Office’s head of long range forecasting, saying: "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event," and also: "I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts." The Independent said the Met Office had confirmed the UK provisionally experienced its hottest summer since records began nearly 150 years ago, after five heatwaves between May and August left the majority of the country in drought and sparked wildfires and travel disruption.
Regional impacts and forecasts
The BBC forecast that for the UK on Sunday, temperatures through the afternoon were likely to peak in the mid-20s Celsius quite widely across the south-east of England, central-southern England and the Welsh marches, with some spots even reaching 28C. It said south-west England and eastern Wales could hit 25C, while northern England would sit around the low 20s Celsius, and that for eastern areas of Northern Ireland and around the Moray Firth in eastern Scotland, afternoon highs could peak at around 21 or 22C. Looking beyond Sunday, the BBC said that as high pressure moves away to the east, an area of low pressure would drive more weather fronts across the UK, and by Monday it would be even windier for north-west Scotland with coastal gales possible.
The BBC also warned that showery outbreaks of rain would push west to east and that behind this cold front, temperatures would be lower by Tuesday, while Wednesday was forecast to be more settled with another brief ridge of high pressure but cooler. Meanwhile, Liverpool Echo said the Met Office weather map showed a warm and sunny outlook across the North West for this weekend, with Friday (September 4) forecast to have a maximum temperature 19 °C and Saturday (September 5) also carrying a maximum temperature 19 °C.
